combodraw+pair = have-to-shove in 3bet pot?
Posted by Suniram
Posted by
Suniram
posted in
Low Stakes
combodraw+pair = have-to-shove in 3bet pot?
SB: $125.43
BB: $40.50
HJ: $56.34
CO: $42.48
HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.30, SB folds, BB raises to $4.15, Hero calls $2.85
Villain seems pretty snug. 25/16 with a 4% overall 3bet over only 120 hands. He seems to cbet at a high frequency tho: 80%. But again, sample is very limited.
First of all. Preflop this is a call IP vs a 3bet no matter how tight villain is, right? Stack depth, position and double-suitedness should be enouh, or am I wrong here?
Flop: First though is 'FD+gutter+pair in 3bet pot. -> shove' but on 2nd thought I wasn't too sure anymore.
I don't have specific reads on villain so I'd like you to help me construct his cbetting his cbet/gii range.
Aditionally, I'm interested in what you think his small cbet means. If he bet like $8, I'd assume that he just has some AKQJ, AAT9 or w/e and is going with it, but betting $5 feels like he is polarizing his range to bet/folds and monsters (monter = not afraid of the draws), since at least I wouldn't be that small with let's say AAKK. If I want to stick to my assumption that he is polarized to weak hands and monster, shoving becomes even worse right?
I played around with PPT and the EV of shoving changes drastically from a 'normal' gii range, to a 'monster' gii range.
- 4%:(A:dd, KK, K9, K:dd, KQJT, QJT:dd, AAK) : Thats the normal range. Vs that we have close to 40% and with some FE, which we def have vs that sizing, shoving makes lotsa sense.
- 4%:(KK:dd, K9:dd, KQJT:dd, QJT:dd, AA:dd:(QJ,JT,QT)): That would be my 'monster' range vs which we have 16%. Even if his range for betting that small isn't that nutty shoving still is bad.
To get an idea of the scenario I did some math. For that I assumed that we have 30% vs his gii range which is just a random number somewhere in the middle of those 2 ranges.
x*($13,5) + (1-x)*(0,30*$44 + ,70*-$36)
13,5x + (1-x)*($13,2 - 25,2)
13,5x + (1-x)*(-12)
13,5x - 12 + 12x
25,5x = 12
x = 47%
Vs a range that we have 30% against, which I feel like is rather an optimistic guess, if villain is somewhat polarized, we need 47% folds to make a shove +-EV, which again I'm not too sure we get vs a tight preflop-3betting range.
Long story short: Is calling better in this spot? It's a 'standard' shove vs a at least averagely-wide preflop-3betting rane and a non-confusing cbet size that indicates FE, right?
Any comments aprreciated, and thanks to anyone who takes his time to read through this mess. ^^
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Hi,
after all your work my answer can only be a disappointment. Your hand falls in the trash category. Double suited yes, but still trash. Fold these kind of hands pre, you will not flop good often enough to make this profitable. Look up Bugs articles (PLO from Scratch) on the internet, the first few discuss what makes good starting hands. Even for stealing there are better hands suited for that than this one because they make some better chance if we get called and even those we will have to fold quite often vs a 3bet.
After all your calculations you will love Bugs delving into equity distributions vs AAxx hands in 3 and 4bet pots.
Cheers!
you are being serious? If you are folding this hand on the btn vs a snug bb you are doing it wrong.
I call flop and jam most turns
PPT iterative 6max ranking for hero's hand is 35 (of 100). So it is definitely a button open for me. I also call the 3bet ip. I think I don't fold any ds hands of my BN opening range HU ip vs 3bets. They can continue on many flops.
Well, if you think he is polarized, you could raise/fold small, but I think you don't need a hand that strong to do it with. It is a bit ugly that the cards that improve your hand (Q,J,T,d) are scare cards for villain which leaves you with zero bluff outs. However 2x 2 and 3x 5 improve your hand and are perceived total blanks and maybe barreled by villain with bare OP/TP. That's why I would just call.
I dislike the idea of raise/folding that hand. Since villain should very rarely call my raise and see a turn I could use hands that I'd usually fold to a bet.
I guess I just got too carried away by always 'having' to be aggro in 3bet pots. Nothing wrong with taking a turn IP esp. vs a rather snug player that won't give me the hardest time. By shoving very thin in such spots I just make life easy for him.
Preflop:
We can open a lot when the players in the blinds rarely 3-bet. I would open any double-suited hand and sigh-call this 3-bet.
About the flop-math you did:
Since you have Villain's 3B range + estimates for his GII range, you can calculate the fold equity. Just simplify by assuming he c-bets 100% (reasonable, since this is a good board for him to c-bet) and folds everything he doesn't GII with. You do this by counting combos in Odds Oracle (or the PPT online simulator).
Count his total flop range (given the cards seen on the board and in your hand), count his GII range, and the difference is the hands he folds. When you have this, you can calculate the fold% and then the EV of the shove. No need to guess when you have numbers!
Hmm, sounds good. Could you walk me through that? I'll try!
1) I use PPT. Type in the flop and my hand. Type in 4% (his 3betrange here preflop) and press count. -> 6809 (thats optimised count - base count would be 10806. Which one to take?)
2) I type in villains gii-range, leave the board and my hand in there and press count.
-> For 4%:(KK, 99, K9, K2, 92, Add, AA:dd, K:dd, KQJT, QJT9, QJT:dd, AAJT, AAQT, AAQJ, AAK) s that would be exactly 3000 combos (again: based = 5943. Which one?)
I need to type in the 4%, right? Also, here it should be way more important to not miss hands he gets it in with than in comparison too calculating ones EQ vs a range, right?
3) As a result this should mean he folds 3000 out of 6809 combos, right? Therefore my FE by shoving here should be (3000/6809=) 44%.
Did I do this correctly?
Ok, while I'm at it. Just in case 44% FE is correct, I calculated how much EQ I need to have vs his gii range to make shoving +EV.
x = EQ of my hand vs his range
0,44*($13,5) + (,66)*((x*$44) + ((1-x)*-$36))
$5,94 + (,66)*(44x -$36 + 36x)
$5,94 + (,66)*(80x - $36)
$5,94 + (52,8x - $23,76)
-$17,82 + 52,8x
$17,82 = 52,8x
x = 0,3375 = 33,75%
So I need 33,75% EQ here to make a shove +EV. If I calculate JT52ds EQ vs the exact range I used to count combos I have 41%. So this would make this shove pretty clearly. +EV
Optimized count = count with card removal accounted for, which is what you want. So your calculation should be correct.
Thx so much, Zen! Did you look at the math I did on my required avg. EQ as well?
Define EV as the effective stack at the end of the hand (my preference, since it makes the EV equations simpler). Assuming the fold% you found is correct (relative to your chosen ranges), we solve for needed pot equity.
Shoving with fold equity 44% and equity x is more profitable than folding when:
0.44($50.40) + 0.66(x)($81.25) > $36.35
$22.18 + $53.63x > $36.35
x > ($36.35 - $22.18)/$53.63
x > 26.4%
EDIT: Fixed typo.First of all, thanks for taking your time to show me this.
Secondly, I don't really get the last calc. You say that 'we solve for needed fold equity' but we already have that and want to figure out the required EQ vs his range. I'm very confused here!
Also, unfortunatly, I don't understand where the numbers $50,4, $81,25 and $36,35 come from? Are these supposed to be the stacksizes when he folds/we win an AI/ we fold?
Sorry, if I'm asking for too much here, but I'm trying to figure out the last step to solve such hands. Also our required EQs (26,4% vs 33,75%) don't match so I def. want to figure out why.
Typing mistake, I meant "needed pot equity". Effective stack is $40.50 at the start of the hand, and $36.35 on the flop. If you get all-in on the flop with x% equity, the pot is 2*$40.50 + $0.25 (the small blind) = $81.25, and you get back x% of that.
So the terms of the EV equation are:
- Expected effective stack when you fold: $36.35
- Expected effective stack when he bet-folds: $36.35 + $9.05 + $5 = $50.40
- Expected effective stack when he bet-GII: (x)($81.25)
Then multiply with the probabilities for his bet-folding and bet-GG'ing happening, and require that the EV of shoving is greater than that of folding. That gives you the EV equation where I solved for x.
Ok, now I get it. Thank youuuuu!
I suspect his smaller sizing makes it less likely he had a hand he's going with. For that reason I'd guess you have a bit more fold equity than the calculations say.
I supsect it works in both ways as I stated in my OP. Either he crushes the board (= fd+2pair/set/wrap) or he wants to give himself a good price on bet/folding. Vs a likely polarized range shovin becomes worse imo b/c I'm crushed by his gii range and have very good EQ vs his folding range.
We did a bunch of EQ and FE calcs here but never really got a conclusion.
Facts:
- We have somewhere around 44% FE by shoving
- If 44% is somewhat accurate we need >26,x% vs villains gii range to make the shove profitable
- If villain has a range of [ 4%:(KK, 99, K9, K2, 92, Add, AA:dd, K:dd, KQJT, QJT9, QJT:dd, AAJT, AAQT, AAQJ, AAK)] we have 41%, if we give him a stronger gii range b/c we assume he'd bet bigger with vulnerable hands our EQ drops significantly.
-> The fact that we haven't verified the assumptions of his polarized range makes this a shove in my opinion. If FE is somewhat correct and his range is in fact not supernutty we have a highly profitable shove. Needing 26,x% and having somewhere around 40% is a hue gap.
I want to add that the overall 3betting % can be VERY misleading. My overall 3bet % is also low, mainly because there are 2 players in the pot before it is my turn very often and I have to fold some part of my range or I cannot 3bet/call profitably and have to overcall with some other part of my range. However, facing a BTN open in the BB HU I 3bet 10+%. When PPTing vs taggish guys I would just use my own "3betting range from BB vs BTN open".
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