Combinatorics on a turn semibluff spot
Posted by RiverOfTears
Posted by
RiverOfTears
posted in
Mid Stakes
Combinatorics on a turn semibluff spot
SB: $625.30
BB: $394
UTG: $284.60
HJ: $400
CO: $1469.81
BN: $519.14 (Hero)
BB: $394
UTG: $284.60
HJ: $400
CO: $1469.81
BN: $519.14 (Hero)
Preflop
($6.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
4
5
7
7
UTG folds, HJ raises to $12, CO folds, Hero calls $12, SB folds, BB calls $8
UTG folds, HJ raises to $12, CO folds, Hero calls $12, SB folds, BB calls $8
Flop
($38.00)
3
2
9
(3 Players)
BB checks,
HJ bets $28,
Hero calls $28,
BB folds
Turn
($94.00)
3
2
9
K
(2 Players)
HJ bets $78,
Hero raises to $325.20,
HJ folds
Final Pot
Hero
wins $247.20
Villain opens 19% from HJ.
SPR on the turn is: 3.8
Villain bets 80% into the pot.
I assigned this stack off range to Villain: (KK,99,K9,KQJT:ss,AA:ss):19% for a total of 6676 combos.
I also know that he on average double barrels 39% of the time and out of these 39% he bet folds the turn 55%. Whether I should adjust that number up or down on this kind of board I am not sure (Ks is an obv barreling card).
Anyway, if he double barrels 39% of a 19% opening range (39k combos given the board) his range is now reduced to about 15k combos. Of these he is stacking off with 6676 (assuming he never XR's) giving me a FE of (15000-6676)/15000 = 55%. Which is actually what he is folding on average :)
Against his stack off range I have 28% EQ so I need 40% FE given that he bets 80% into the pot. And I should have about 55%. So my profit should be 15% of $172 since 40% was breakeven, right?
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