With your line do you often have a set here. Like QQ87s or something in the line that you often play this well. At the same time a set OOP in a deep pot is not something you would like to x/r on the turn since it brings in ALOT of possible draws and you have to guess on the river.
Perhaps this is low stakes thinking but making a small blocker bet off about 1/4 pot would look like a set? Or perhaps people at your stakes reads through this. Well the point off this would you often turn a set into a bluff here with lets say nf blocker?

You could make it look like a set and hopes he turns his hand into a bluff. Problem is you WILL stack off to the nuts. At the same time how often do 2 people backdoor 1st and second nuts. I think u MOST likely have the nuts here 80%+ time so the question is how can u make the most?

Second, if you X will he valuebet straights? BUT if you bet the pot on the river u become SUPER polazired and IF he has the nf blocker in his hand he might call you down light since in my eyes u rep 2pairs/sets that bricked and is trying his T9 to fold.

thx for input erdian

i would play QQ (no draw otf) like this vs him, as well as KQ/66+turned draw and a small amount of pair+gs that doesnt wanna call again. im assuming however that he reads my range as mostly KQ/66 no draw.

i wouldnt turn a set into a bluff altho i can admit i wouldnt have thought of that. but it doesnt matter, if i have a set on this river, there are too many flushes in his range to make him fold (assuming he doesnt fold river flushes to a bet).

im almost sure he wont bet a str8, even tho if i check he probably thinks hes usually good with str8s. theres a small chance he makes a tiny vbet with str8s on this river, but i highly doubt it since he knows im tight...and hes even tighter than i am on the river.

a small bet by me otr could be interpreted as a rivered str8 or a low flush. i doubt he thinks i block bet a set here, but im not sure.

I have no experience at these stakes but I think this is a tough spot. Why would he bet the turn on that particular card and call a check raise unless he had the nut flush draw possibly with a broadway draw too. You're not afraid of the straight but it sure feels dangerous. Small bet fold? Maybe he had the broadway draw with a lower flush draw and he'll just call a small bet. If you think he's the type to take a stab regardless if you check perhaps you could check call.

If your detailed analysis and the assumption of his range distribution otr are correct than imho betting small (300ish) to get Value from straights w spade blocker and flushes is prolly best. The ratio of NF and NF blocker is too small to fear getting bluffed out of the hand.

Another thing is how your range distribution looks on the river and how you want to play your range here? What would a hand in your range look like w bluff potential? I assume you have not many hands worse than sets otr?
Interesting to see how to construct a ch/f, ch/c, (ch/r?) b/f and b/c Range based on your range distribution.

I think your turn x/r range has too many FD so I feel checking river is out of the question...he should be checking back all str8s (except with As)

So I like a blocker-bet sizing that can induce a spazz bluff or call from Str8s/smaller flush...and I think ~$360-420 is the right amount. Make it too small and he might see your intentions.

Maybe playing with you remaining stack size could create some psychological inclination to perceive it as a bluff...$377.18 or $377.19 leaving your stack at $1,000 or $999.99

I think the most important things about the river sizing are

• to give your opp perceived FE vs you with his bluffs

• callable by bluff catchers...str8s and lower flushes.

alright thanks guys.

Perma: i bet $325 and called his shove. it sounds ridiculous but i may be able to fold against this particular villain since im not sure if hes capable of bluff raising without the nf blocker. but then again, even tho he is a bumhunter he is one of the bigger winners at these stakes it seems so i have to assume hes good enough to bluff jam often enough for this call to not be bad.

he had AAQJ+nutflush fwiw

I think highly analytical players tend to give other players too much
credit for finding and executing bluff spots...just because he is one
of the top winners doesn't mean he got there by bluffing all the time

very true.

i label him as a bumhunter bc i only see him playing when theres a fish at the table. hes one of the tighter regs on the site (regarding opening pre), and i never see him at the table if theres only regs, even if all the regs are sub par. im not sure tho that him being a bum hunter means hes very passive, his stats are very aggro and I used to be a huuuge bum hunter years ago when i played holdem, but i was still one of the more move-happy and bluff-crazy dudes on the sites vs other regs. in general tho, bum hunters seem to just play solid and no crazy moves vs regs, and try to target the fish. so, sure...if he thinks my weak bet otr is always weakness or a blocking bet, hes gonna bluff raise a lot and i should call. but if he gives me credit for being able to fake block bet this river he may only shove with a big blocker making my call very -EV to around BE.

thx for the very spot on point about analytical players giving ppl too much credit for being capable of advanced stuff...i def fall into that trap.