the hand

villain opens btn 33% acc to HM2. ive been very tight in the blinds in the past, and sb is a new reg so btns range pre could be wider but i doubt its higher than 40%.

we could of course 3b pre, but if his btn range really is 33% then theres not a lot of hands id wanna 3b and ill have poor board coverage if i only 3b hands like this which matters more in these deep games. id rather 3b super prem high card hands and ds low rundowns and double pairs vs him here, but i dont feel strongly about flatting/3b pre so whatever.

he has a very high cb ip, could be close to 100% vs me if he knows i defend wide. hm cb ip = 82%. we could x-r but vs this guy i almost have to fold if he rr flop and i wont be super excited barreling off ott even on bricks if he calls.

his turn barreling stat is 76% ip and now a x-r is pretty mandatory imo.

so we get to the river and in game i thought of 4 options. 1) check 2) bet 300ish and call a raise 3) bet 500 and call/fold or 4) bet biggish like 700

if we give him $fi40 pre
flop: 100% of pre range
turn b/c range: ss:54+,543+,ss:Q6+,Ass:T8+,as:54+ - 77+

his range distr will be

A) NF: 29%
B) worse flushes: 24.5%
C) T9+: 28%
D) nf-blocker: 3%

im assuming he will only bet flushes if i check to him on the river (and he may not bet low flushes).
i cant have air in his eyes, the bottom of my range is prob KQxx. this isnt really true, id x-r weakish hands ott with this sizing that "cant" xc again hands like Q+gutter. still not a big part of my range tho, so checking makes sense but we will most likely miss value vs str8s if we check river.

check calling river is obv fine, im wondering if betting is better, mostly targeting his worse flushes and str8s which outnumber the nuts 2-1.

what do you think?