3bet pot math of a turn bluff
Posted by oboltys88
Posted by
oboltys88
posted in
Low Stakes
3bet pot math of a turn bluff
I think about math of this play. I risk 15$ to win 10$ in the pot. When all-in i think i'm up against a pretty strong range. Something around this:
So i lose +7.4$-15$ = -7.6$
When he folds i win 10$.
He needs to fold 43% of the time for the play to be breakeven.
.43*10 - .57*7.6 = 0
Now how to estimate how often he folds?
I think this is the range he peals the flop with:
And this is the range he stacks off ott:
Now 0.62%/2.3% = 27% So he folds 73% of the time he peals the flop. That means the play is +ev. Is this correct?
Loading 3 Comments...
If you indeed have 24% on this flop you shouldn't be too excited about donk-folding. That's a pretty big mistake. It looks very strange to donk with just overcards and a gutter on a board that probably smacks your opponent's 3-bet range.
I think your reasoning is off here. The flop donk bet is going to be floated much lighter than that, and you're going to get raised by many of the hands you list. Likewise, the stackoff range on the turn looks way too tight. For example, I think 99 still stacks off on the turn if it just called the flop.
What you're forgetting here is that you're setting yourself up to make mistakes on later streets. As you see here, you may be ok to continue betting on A,K,J rivers, but all other cards are pretty awkward.
FWIW, if you 4-bet this hand preflop, you might be ok to shove this flop.
guys, in "he peals OTF range", combos in brackets are the ones we EXCLUDE from this 9%, right?
Yes, i just excluded strong hands that he will shove and assumed he will peal very wide almost all of his 3betting range. That might be incorrect though.
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