3bet pot math of a turn bluff

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3bet pot math of a turn bluff

Hi, here is a hand. Here is what i think. His 3bet is 9% overall which is on the tighter side. On the flop not everybody will raise/gii AAxx here so i get to see a turn quite often vs a decent % of his range. Of course he hits this flop w/ his middle rundowns and i will safely fold to a raise. If he's shoving flop w/ AAxx i will fold since i have around 24% and i don't fold out much equity. On the turn i think it's a good spot to to get him to fold AAxx since it makes KKxx less likely.

I think about math of this play. I risk 15$ to win 10$ in the pot. When all-in i think i'm up against a pretty strong range. Something around this:

So i lose +7.4$-15$ =  -7.6$

When he folds i win 10$.

He needs to fold 43% of the time for the play to be breakeven. 

.43*10 - .57*7.6 = 0

Now how to estimate how often he folds?


I think this is the range he peals the flop with:

And this is the range he stacks off ott:

Now 0.62%/2.3% = 27% So he folds 73% of the time he peals the flop. That means the play is +ev. Is this correct?


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