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25PLO: Hand Evaluation

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

25PLO: Hand Evaluation

HJ: $46.12
CO: $25.68
BN: $10.74
SB: $53.39
BB: $62.17 (Hero)
CO is okay LAG. He can be pretty spewy, but he's not bad. He likes to barrel a good amount. He has 5Bet KKJ8ds AIPF against someone who pretty obviously only 4Bets AA**. No strange plays other than being generally aggressive and that he stacks off too light against SS's.

CO Stats: 4.7k hands, 34/25, RIF in CO 30%, AF 3.7, CBet F/T/R=62/58/48, WTSD 32%
BB (Hero) Stats): 60 hands 34/22, AF 2.8
Preflop ($0.35) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt A J 8 4
HJ folds, CO raises to $0.70, BN calls $0.70, SB folds, Hero calls $0.45
Pretty loose preflop, but I have good relative position (can check and see what SS does after CO acts). I probably would fold second time around.
Flop ($2.20) 5 3 J (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.65, BN folds, Hero calls $1.65
I X/C here. CO is going to be betting any hand that he is willing to go with OTF vs. the SS. I X/C given that he can have just naked Acc, or any hand with a decent FD and with the SS out of the way I can see a turn. My gutter is also going to be good a lot of the time and I have a BDNFD which helps my equity a bit too.
Turn ($5.50) 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.12, Hero calls $4.12
Since I didn't show a lot of strength OTF, I think he'll be barreling here pretty wide, pretty much with his entire flop CBetting range, except for some one pair hands like J:$B$B$B$B:xx!cc. I call here with a double gutter and two pair draw. Of course, he can have straights here, but his range is definitely wider than that.
River ($13.74) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13.74, Hero calls $13.74
Once he pots it OTR his range is very polarized. I think that he is going to be value betting only the top two straights, and he may not even be potting the second nuts. So, I think the majority of the time he is going to have nuts or nothing thinking that I just had a weak pair+cc or strong club draw that missed. I also don't think he'd be potting it with sets here because the only hands that are worse that could call, but didn't raise OTF or OTT are ones like mine.
Final Pot
CO has 9 9 5 5 CO wins $39.22
I was a bit surprised he potted the river with this hand. Granted, I don't have a ton of straights after X/C the turn, but I'm not sure what he's getting value from. All my bluff catchers by the river would probably have raised flop (J5, J3, 53), so that really only leaves J8, J6, 86, and 63. I also could potentially X/C the turn with 42 and X/Decide the river, but that's the only hand he would be bluffing me off of because I'd raise 74 OTT and X/R, or maybe lead, any 97.
LMK what you think. Thanks!

CO Range OTF- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+5c+3d&g=oh&h1=Ad+Jh+8h+4d&h2=JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Ads%2C+55%3ARROO%2C+33%3ARROO%2C+%28Acc%2C+Acc%3A%28J%2C5%2C3%29%2C+J5%2C+J3%2C+53%2C+J%3A%24B%24B%24B%24B%3Axx%2C+A42%3Acc%2C+642%2C+764%29%3A30%25&s=generic

CO Range OTT- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+5c+3d+6h&g=oh&h1=Ad+Jh+8h+4d&h2=JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Ads%2C+55%3ARROO%2C+33%3ARROO%2C+%28Acc%2C+Acc%3A%28J%2C5%2C3%29%2C+J5%2C+J3%2C+53%2C+A42%3Acc%2C+642%2C+764%29%3A30%25&s=generic

CO Range OTR- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+5c+3d+6h+8d&g=oh&h1=Ad+Jh+8h+4d&h2=%28JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Ads%2C+55%3ARROO%2C+33%3ARROO%2C+A42%3Acc%2C+642%29%401%2C+%28Acc%2C+Acc%3A%28J%2C5%2C3%29%2C764%2C+97%3AJ%3Acc%2C+J975%3Axx%29%3A30%25%403&s=generic

11 Comments

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Phil Galfond 12 years, 3 months ago
Your logic all sounds great, other than this part:

"Since I didn't show a lot of strength OTF, I think he'll be barreling here pretty wide, pretty much with his entire flop CBetting range"

I think that your flop c/c range hits this turn decently, or at least picks up some extra outs. I wouldn't expect him to barrel without decent equity vs. your hand.

I think the turn and river calls are marginal, but both are okay. I agree that he's likely to be polarized on the river here.

The main question I have (because I'm not familiar with the play at these stakes) is- will he bluff with 8x/99/TT or will he check those for their "showdown value." It's hard to come up with tons of hands that don't have a pair of eights or better on this board run out, so if he isn't bluffing with 8x+, we have to worry about his potential bluff range being too narrow.
Eddie Spencer-Small 12 years, 3 months ago
I agree with Phil, his river bet IS polarized, but I can't see an adequately large enough bluff range to make this call profitable. Generally I just don't think its a goof idea to get into an OOP 3 street check/calling frame of mind in omaha. Theres just too many outs an opponent can hit in this game (even against a laggy player) and when you dont bet yourself, youre just not winning enough pots to make up for the times you get sucked out on.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
Thanks guys. Phil, I think that he's not thinking about my range a huge amount as I have seen him barrel bad turns vs. others before. That's mainly why I thought he would be barreling pretty wide here, especially if he has little, to no SD value. This isn't the type of guy who would check back his naked nut flush draw IP and realize his equity. He wants to set himself up for a big river bluff if he misses, or a big value bet against lower flushes. I think this guy definitely would bluff his 8x/99/TT hands, especially without a J. If he has a hand like AcBB8c he is going to bluff. Same for ABTT:cc!J, AB99:cc!J, KQ99:cc, KQTT:cc, etc.

Eddie, I rarely take X/C, X/C, X/C lines and easily am one of the most aggressive players at these levels (10, 25, 50, some 100). This session I was facing a lot of multi-way pots which is why my AF is lower than normal. I just thought that this hand would be profitable to see the turn/river with because my gutters have implied odds when I X/C and the FD misses. Also, I think he is very polarized OTR, and since there was a SS on his immediate right I didn't think he was opening as many straight combos on this board, which means he is usually either value betting the nuts or near nuts, or is at the bottom of his range by the river and has to bluff.
Viktor Luis Larsson 12 years, 3 months ago
I would consider check/raising turn. You got a blocker to the nuts and hes very likely to barrel wide as you said so hes most likely to fold that to a raise with that range. Hes going to have a hard time continueing with anything except set (?) or a straight, which you have a blocker to. I prefer check/raising turn over donking just because as you said, he barrels alot and that will give us more profit when we check/raise sinse I believe hes likely to call a donkbet more often then a check/raise. Check/raising also gives us more dead money and make it more profitable.

James Obst 12 years, 3 months ago
hand seems fine, i wouldn't be folding river with the reads you've stated. just wanted to mention preflop isn't loose and considering folding would be lunacy, 3betting is the only other option and would surely be fine also, especially so if the short stack was really loose. i like just flatting though here
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
Thanks James. The reason I thought folding might be okay is because I've seen a lot of people say that hands like ABSSds and ABMSds are overrated and not as great as they look. I usually would play them and sometimes 3Bet them to isolate, but I started getting the impression that they aren't that good of hands. What do you, or anyone, think the lowest type of double suited hand we can play IP and/or OOP? Is it a hand like AJMSds or could it be as low as KQMSds?
James Obst 12 years, 3 months ago
Yeah they can be, depends on connectivity - eg. i would strongly favour a 3b here with AJT5ds, but whilst AJ84 has great coverage it's going to flop more gutters versus open enders and just flop slightly weaker in general. the shorter the stacks are the more liberal we should be in 3betting as against flatting since there's so much value in being able to bet our shorter stacked opponents off their equity being first to act post, but having to play against the 100bb deep aggro player means we should make sure our 3b range is of excellent playability, AJ84ds probably flops a little rough for that.

The important thing is that all four cards are working for your hand and thus cover the board well. DS hands with big middle gaps like say KJ65/AQ72ds are often unplayable, as are hands like 5432ds that pretty much only make under straights and low fds. The goal with 3betting in pos is often to isolate one player but from the blinds like this with 2 people already in it's only really ever to bloat the pot with an equity advantage, and the deeper you are the more importance must go to flopping nut/non-rough hands/draws as against simply flopping good equity since we'll have to find our way to more turns and rivers deeper OOP - short stacked we just get to pot flops and bet our opponents off their equity when we are first to speak post which is highly lucrative (so can 3b wider from the blinds the shorter you get).

But yeah only having to call less than 2bb against LP ranges AJ84ds is still plenty playable and i would have played this hand the same, I could be convinced folding the turn could be the better option though
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
Another question I had is about his actual hand and river bet. Would you guys value bet this hand in his spot? Also, what is the lowest hand you'd value bet here?

Like I said, after only X/C the turn I never have 74, so the only straights I would have are 42 and weird 97.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
Okay, thanks. I'm starting to think the same way. If he doesn't think I have many, possibly any, straights I don't mind his value bet hoping to get hero-ed by something strange like J8, A/Kc986:cc.

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