25PLO: Hand Evaluation

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

25PLO: Hand Evaluation

HJ: $46.12
CO: $25.68
BN: $10.74
SB: $53.39
BB: $62.17 (Hero)
CO is okay LAG. He can be pretty spewy, but he's not bad. He likes to barrel a good amount. He has 5Bet KKJ8ds AIPF against someone who pretty obviously only 4Bets AA**. No strange plays other than being generally aggressive and that he stacks off too light against SS's.

CO Stats: 4.7k hands, 34/25, RIF in CO 30%, AF 3.7, CBet F/T/R=62/58/48, WTSD 32%
BB (Hero) Stats): 60 hands 34/22, AF 2.8
Preflop ($0.35) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt A J 8 4
HJ folds, CO raises to $0.70, BN calls $0.70, SB folds, Hero calls $0.45
Pretty loose preflop, but I have good relative position (can check and see what SS does after CO acts). I probably would fold second time around.
Flop ($2.20) 5 3 J (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.65, BN folds, Hero calls $1.65
I X/C here. CO is going to be betting any hand that he is willing to go with OTF vs. the SS. I X/C given that he can have just naked Acc, or any hand with a decent FD and with the SS out of the way I can see a turn. My gutter is also going to be good a lot of the time and I have a BDNFD which helps my equity a bit too.
Turn ($5.50) 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.12, Hero calls $4.12
Since I didn't show a lot of strength OTF, I think he'll be barreling here pretty wide, pretty much with his entire flop CBetting range, except for some one pair hands like J:$B$B$B$B:xx!cc. I call here with a double gutter and two pair draw. Of course, he can have straights here, but his range is definitely wider than that.
River ($13.74) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $13.74, Hero calls $13.74
Once he pots it OTR his range is very polarized. I think that he is going to be value betting only the top two straights, and he may not even be potting the second nuts. So, I think the majority of the time he is going to have nuts or nothing thinking that I just had a weak pair+cc or strong club draw that missed. I also don't think he'd be potting it with sets here because the only hands that are worse that could call, but didn't raise OTF or OTT are ones like mine.
Final Pot
CO has 9 9 5 5 CO wins $39.22
I was a bit surprised he potted the river with this hand. Granted, I don't have a ton of straights after X/C the turn, but I'm not sure what he's getting value from. All my bluff catchers by the river would probably have raised flop (J5, J3, 53), so that really only leaves J8, J6, 86, and 63. I also could potentially X/C the turn with 42 and X/Decide the river, but that's the only hand he would be bluffing me off of because I'd raise 74 OTT and X/R, or maybe lead, any 97.
LMK what you think. Thanks!

CO Range OTF- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+5c+3d&g=oh&h1=Ad+Jh+8h+4d&h2=JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Ads%2C+55%3ARROO%2C+33%3ARROO%2C+%28Acc%2C+Acc%3A%28J%2C5%2C3%29%2C+J5%2C+J3%2C+53%2C+J%3A%24B%24B%24B%24B%3Axx%2C+A42%3Acc%2C+642%2C+764%29%3A30%25&s=generic

CO Range OTT- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+5c+3d+6h&g=oh&h1=Ad+Jh+8h+4d&h2=JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Ads%2C+55%3ARROO%2C+33%3ARROO%2C+%28Acc%2C+Acc%3A%28J%2C5%2C3%29%2C+J5%2C+J3%2C+53%2C+A42%3Acc%2C+642%2C+764%29%3A30%25&s=generic

CO Range OTR- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+5c+3d+6h+8d&g=oh&h1=Ad+Jh+8h+4d&h2=%28JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Ads%2C+55%3ARROO%2C+33%3ARROO%2C+A42%3Acc%2C+642%29%401%2C+%28Acc%2C+Acc%3A%28J%2C5%2C3%29%2C764%2C+97%3AJ%3Acc%2C+J975%3Axx%29%3A30%25%403&s=generic

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