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25PLO: Deep 4Bet Pot vs. Aces

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

25PLO: Deep 4Bet Pot vs. Aces

Merge - $0.25 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 105.96 BB
Villain (CO): 223.44 BB 17/10, AF=6.1, 4Bet+ After Raising=23%, Fold to 3Bet After Raising=46%
Hero (BTN): 202.44 BB 28/18, AF=3.3, 3Bet Pre=9%
SB: 141.8 BB
BB: 93.56 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8s Jh 9c Ts

fold, CO raises to 3.4 BB, Hero raises to 11.6 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 36.2 BB, Hero calls 24.6 BB

Flop: (73.8 BB, 2 players) As Jd 9s
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: (73.8 BB, 2 players) 3c
CO bets 73.8 BB, Hero calls 73.8 BB

River: (221.4 BB, 2 players) 8h
CO bets 113.44 BB and is all-in, fold
__________________________________________________________________________________________

Again, couldn't get the hand converter to work, so I had to do it like this.

Pre-Flop: I 3Bet a premium hand IP. His 4Bet range is almost all AA**, so easy call.

Flop: He checks. In game, I didn't want to get AI OTF, but after doing some equity sims and hand counts getting it in is okay. Against an AA** range I have 42.7% (I underestimated this) and he is way more likely to have AA!ss than AA:ss (see counts below). That means that we have the right pot odds to get it in [166.24/(166.24*2+73.8)=40.9% required]. Also, OTT I am pretty much going to either have 70%+, ~30%, or <=10% which means I'm not getting paid when I hit or I have to fold my equity to a >3/4PSB.

Turn: As played, I called turn because I thought I had >33%, but after the sims I realize I don't.

So should I Pot/C the flop or X flop and X or F turn?

Sims:

Equity vs. AA- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA&s=generic

Count of AA!ss- http://propokertools.com/simulations/count?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA%21ss&s=generic

Count of AA:ss- http://propokertools.com/simulations/count?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA%3Ass&s=generic

HvR Turn Equity- http://propokertools.com/simulations/graph_hvr?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA&s=generic

15 Comments

Loading 15 Comments...

Viktor Luis Larsson 12 years, 3 months ago
What is your thoughts about the villain? I think its more true that his range is more weighted towards AAxx when your 100bb deep compared to when your over 200bb deep. I could see him 4betting a wider range vs a habital 3bettor. Im not sure if this guy thinks about how deep he is and how to adjust his 4betting range, so if you have a read that its almost always AAxx, then you should stick to it.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
This guy is an aggressive nit. He's folding nearly half of his 10% opening range to a 3Bet. I'm confident that he has AA** over 90% of the time.
whysoeasy 12 years, 3 months ago
If you sure he have over 90% of the time AAxx, don't have anything you can do than call flop. If he have something else I guess it's hands like AKJQ and you still underdog and obviously you know that we don't want to push without FE when we are behind.
whysoeasy 12 years, 3 months ago
fak I completly missread the flop sorry for that, thought he poted (can I say that?) 3 streets. So It's a bit stange if he don't CB AA on that board because he really need protection I guess. Maybe he want to c/r but Idon't like it.
Anyway if you think he have AA almost always we don't want put money in the pot (and take the risk to get c/r) like said Phil.
But I still think it's a weird spot to check AA.
Phil Galfond 12 years, 3 months ago
If we know he has AA, our goal is to see cards as cheaply as possible until we hit. There's never a good reason to force more money into the pot. If we have to make a (correct) fold on the turn, that's fine.

The only reason to pot flop is to get folds from KKxx. If you think Non-AAxx hands are rare, I'd play it exactly as you did.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
Thanks Phil. Just to be clear, we have ~30% OTT aginst an AA** only range. So you'd fold the turn? I called a PSB OTT because I overestimated my equity against AA** in game. However, even if he shows up with a non-AA** hand just 5% of the time that improves our equity enough to call the turn.

Equity Against AA@95, 6%!AA@5- propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=As+Jd+9s+3c&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA%4095%2C+6%25%21AA%405&s=generic
whysoeasy 12 years, 3 months ago
I think you can call the turn if you expect him to fire when you hit river (or c/c) but you take the risk that he overflush/straight you OTR so i'm not sure if it's good or not. I should try some simulations but I'm not good at it yet (maybe gonna try later).
Futhermore, he can show up with something else than AA after checking the flop and poting the turn like you said, good point for a call.
Viktor Luis Larsson 12 years, 3 months ago
If you think all his actions and reads you have on him says he got AAxx like almost always when he 4bets you, its correct to not bet the flop. However, when he doesnt cbet Im leaning towards betting flop. Why in earth would he check this flop with AA? Just doesnt add up.

Also the stat "4Bet+ After Raising=23%" on him is kinda telling me he doesnt always have AAxx in this spot. I dont know how big sample you have on him or his positional % open from CO but I think you can give him less credit here.
whysoeasy 12 years, 3 months ago
Agree that he doesn't always have AAxx, we can add a lot of 4 broadways cards type hands with one or 2 suits I guess because it's play better than some shitty AA. Also I don't know about you guys but I don't feel confortable 4betting deep shitty AA like AA83r and we maybe can discount the worst AAxx, what do you think about that?
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
It was 3/13 times for the 4Bet+ After Raising, so not a large sample by any means. However, he has folded to a 3Bet nearly half of the time and if he is 4Betting 23% of his opening range that's 2.3% of hands which is VERY aces heavy. I believe I heard in a video that a 2% 3Bet range is when someone only 3Bets AA**. Also, I could definitely see this guy 4Betting rainbow/bad aces.
RiverOfTears 12 years, 3 months ago
You really need to know his opening range by position and 4bet range by position. A lot of people go crazy 4betting from CO. If he is not positional aware at all then he probably has AA since 23% of an opening range is 2.3% (same as AA). If he 4bets a little wider you need to shove flop because of the non nutty composition of your hand, but as stated already if you know he has AA then don't give him the chance to XR.
Viktor Luis Larsson 12 years, 3 months ago
Lets say villain is opening 25% from CO, and if he 4bets 23% of his opening range, it will problably be the top 5.75% of his range right? Then he will have AAxx less then half the time. I guess we need to know his CO open % basically.

whysoeasy, Im not sure this guy were facing is thinking too deeply about the game. Hes playing 17/10 which tells me he knows some stuff about playing PLO (nutpeddler?) but not too advanced. So I could possibly see him 4betting bad AAxx this deep, and its not something I would do.
RiverOfTears 12 years, 3 months ago
"Lets say villain is opening 25% from CO, and if he 4bets 23% of his opening range, it will problably be the top 5.75% of his range right?"

Right, that is if he 4bets 23% from CO also. It is very nice to know player's OR and 4B% from each position.

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