25PLO: Deep 4Bet Pot vs. Aces
Posted by Lenny Seward
Posted by
Lenny Seward
posted in
Low Stakes
25PLO: Deep 4Bet Pot vs. Aces
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
UTG: 105.96 BB
Villain (CO): 223.44 BB 17/10, AF=6.1, 4Bet+ After Raising=23%, Fold to 3Bet After Raising=46%
Hero (BTN): 202.44 BB 28/18, AF=3.3, 3Bet Pre=9%
SB: 141.8 BB
BB: 93.56 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8s Jh 9c Ts
fold, CO raises to 3.4 BB, Hero raises to 11.6 BB, fold, fold, CO raises to 36.2 BB, Hero calls 24.6 BB
Flop: (73.8 BB, 2 players) As Jd 9s
CO checks, Hero checks
Turn: (73.8 BB, 2 players) 3c
CO bets 73.8 BB, Hero calls 73.8 BB
River: (221.4 BB, 2 players) 8h
CO bets 113.44 BB and is all-in, fold
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Again, couldn't get the hand converter to work, so I had to do it like this.
Pre-Flop: I 3Bet a premium hand IP. His 4Bet range is almost all AA**, so easy call.
Flop: He checks. In game, I didn't want to get AI OTF, but after doing some equity sims and hand counts getting it in is okay. Against an AA** range I have 42.7% (I underestimated this) and he is way more likely to have AA!ss than AA:ss (see counts below). That means that we have the right pot odds to get it in [166.24/(166.24*2+73.8)=40.9% required]. Also, OTT I am pretty much going to either have 70%+, ~30%, or <=10% which means I'm not getting paid when I hit or I have to fold my equity to a >3/4PSB.
Turn: As played, I called turn because I thought I had >33%, but after the sims I realize I don't.
So should I Pot/C the flop or X flop and X or F turn?
Sims:
Equity vs. AA- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA&s=generic
Count of AA!ss- http://propokertools.com/simulations/count?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA%21ss&s=generic
Count of AA:ss- http://propokertools.com/simulations/count?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA%3Ass&s=generic
HvR Turn Equity- http://propokertools.com/simulations/graph_hvr?b=As+Jd+9s&g=oh&h1=Jh+Ts+9c+8s&h2=AA&s=generic
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