Again lets give him 2 calling ranges:

R1 = 2PR_23> (KQ or better) 

R2 = TP> (A433 or better) 

for T1,R1:

ev = 0.63*(-$11.5) + 0.37*($18) = -$7.5 + $6.2 = -$1.3 = -6.5 bb

for T1,R2:

ev = 0.91*(-$11.5) + 0.09*($18) = -$10.4 + $1.62 = -$8.8 = -44bb

Conclusion 1: when he has a reasonably tight turn pealing range river bluff is from significantly -ev to spew.

for T2,R1:

ev = 0.536*(-$11.5)+0.464*($18) = -$6.1 + $8.3 = $2.2 = 11bb

for T2,R2:

ev = 0.8*(-$11.5)+0.2*($18) = -$9.2 + $3.6 = -$5.6 = -28bb

Conclusion 2: when he has a loose turn pealing range river bluff varies from +11bb to -28bb depending on his calling range.

for T3,R1:

ev = 0.486*(-11.5)+0.514*(18) = -5.6 + 9.3 = 18bb

for T3,R2:

ev = 0.745*-11.5+0.255*18 = -8.5+4.6 = -$3.9 = -19.5bb

Conclusion 3: when he has 100% calling range on the turn river bluff is +ev

In the best case i win 18bb with this play. For that to happen he needs to call turn with a 100% of his range from flop and call river with only KQ or better.

In the worst case i lose 44bb with this play when he calls turn with only flushdraws, top pair or better, top pair + oesd or better and calls river with A433 or better.

I personally would weight probabilities for ranges as follows:

T1-20%,T2-40%,T3-40%

R1-50%,R2-50%

EV = 0.2*0.5*(-6.5bb)+0.2*0.5*(-44bb)+0.4*0.5*(11bb)+0.4*0.5*(-28bb)+0.4*0.5*(18bb)+0.4*0.5*(-19.5bb) = -0.65-4.4+2.2-5.6+3.6-3.9 = -8.8bb

Even if you weight in favor of tight river call R1-60%,R2-40%

EV = -0.78-3.52+2.6-4.5+4.3-3.1 = -5bb

Conclusion 4: Play is -ev given the assumptions.

Question: if i am v a better player on the river in a similar spot how many air/blocker type hands i can bluff with?

Lets look at my range.

Lets say i would 3bet 10% on the button and would cbet this flop 100%:

Lets say i want to be aggressive on the turn since my range is very strong on this board.

T1 = 2PR>, FD, OE>, TP+GD>

Then on the river i bet for value: 2PR_13>

As a bluff TP<<

And check *-(2PR_13>, TP<<)

Lets say a villain's range in this spot:

pre: 25%-$4B7

flop: TP+(GD>, 2BFD), 2PR>

turn: (2PR+GD>, TP+FD, 2PR_13>)-ST

and on the river he calls with: 2PR_13> (82%) and folds the rest (18%)

ev = 0.89*0.82*0.8*($18) + 0.89*0.82*0.2*(-$11.5) + 0.89*0.18*($18) + 0.11*0.1*($18) = $10.5-$1.67+$2.88+$0.2 = $12.1 = 60bb

What if i never bluff?

ev = 0.87*0.82*0.82*($18)+0.87*0.82*0.18*(-$11.5)+0.87*0.18*($18)+0.13*0.07*($18)= 10.5-1.4+2.8+0.16 = $6.67 = 33.5bb

What if we bet our entire range?

ev = 1*0.82*0.71*($18)+1*0.82*0.29*(-$11.5)+1*0.18*($18) = 10.4-2.7+3.2 = 10.9 = 54.5bb

Conclusion:

1. Betting AQ> for value and bluffing every hand that is worse than top pair show positive expectation.

2. Betting entire range is better than never bluffing

3. I have very little air in this spot so i can bluff with it 100% of the time.