Here's where it gets interesting imo.

First off, in retrospect I probably should have gone with a bigger sizing, given how many draws this turn card brought.  My original plan was to pot/fold but that seemed a bit dirty, so I opted to go for $22/fold but that might be a mistake.  

Now, as for whether to bluff this turn or not:

I think villain will fold naked J4/J2 here quite often, and 42 almost always if he didn't on flop already.  

(J4, J2)!(JJ, 44, 22, QJ, 53, 63, A3, A5) = 6306 combos

(I ruled out 42 because I think he would have folded that on flop, but if we include this our bluffing becomes even more profitable.)

He will certainly call with all wraps:

A53 = 1776 combos (AJ53, A543, A532 he might 3bet on flop but these are 384 combos)

653 = 1776 combos (likewise, he might 3bet on flop with J653, 6543, 6532)

AKJT = 72 combos

KJT9 = 96 combos

JT98 = 128 combos

AJT9 = 96 combos

Total = 3800 combos

He will call/shove with QJ or better: 

KQJ, AQJ, QJT, JJ, 44, 22 = 7918 combos

Now, if we can assume he is always folding naked J4 and J2, and continuing otherwise, we will get a fold about 34% of the time (=6306/18024).  When we bet $22 into $34 it has to work about 39% of the time, so we're not quite getting the odds, but there's a few factors that will make up for it:

- Because I expect him to shove or fold all better made hands on turn (folding J4- and jamming QJ+, for example), when we get called I think we will have the best made hand quite often. 

- When behind, we can still improve sometimes: T will give us the nuts (except Ts), J is probably a good one too, K and 6 might too.

That said, what do you think about flop/turn play?  Does my range estimation seem reasonable?

And more importantly, what's our plans for river if he calls?  My plan was to jam on T, jam or x/c on J, x/f on 6/5/3, bluff on Q/4/2, and quite unclear on other river cards.