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Unpleasant spot with bottom set facing turn donk for pot.

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Unpleasant spot with bottom set facing turn donk for pot.

BN: $52.46 (Hero)
SB: $26.25
BB: $24.05
UTG: $25.42
HJ: $25.10
CO: $31.13
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 4 4
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.62, SB folds, BB calls $0.37
Flop ($1.34) 4 6 T (2 Players)
BB bets $1.28, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $2.72
Turn ($9.34) 4 6 T 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $8.92
Hero?

No stats, no reads. Everything is standard up until the turn when villain leads for pot, making the pot ~$17 and leaving himself only ~$10 behind. When he flats my flop raise, that pretty much turns his hand face up as either some sort of TP hand or a FD. When he donks for pot on the turn, it seems likely that his range is obv weighted heavily toward flushes, and I'd say the worst he can have here is like AdTx. 78 is also a possibility I guess, but that still beats me. Anyway, if villain was deeper this would be a pretty standard call imo, but because he hasn't got much behind I'm not really sure what to do. I'm getting express odds of ~2:1, and assuming that he's pot committed on any river I could say that with my implied odds it's more like ~3:1. Still, the river is only gonna pair the board like slightly more than 20% of the time, meaning that I'd need to be getting 4:1 to break even. This is assuming that I'm behind here, which I think is a fairly safe assumption given that most players slow down (especially OOP) when the flush hits if they don't have it themselves. Soo.......fold my set? :(

6 Comments

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Jonas Smailys 10 years, 10 months ago

Id be more inclined to fold if he bet smthing like 1/2 pot OTF and then bombed the turn (as he did) when the flush came. Cant fold now vs an unknown taking such line like I wouldnt even be surprised if he's vbetting worse hands tbh.

J.J. Arroyo 10 years, 10 months ago

I percieve him.very aggressive I like to call here, as you said you are getting around 3:1, and as.you said a double will hit around 20%, and he still may be doing it with many draws that are opened on turn, realizing bad his equity and flushes, but you are not dead at all :-) 

Hoothoot 10 years, 10 months ago

Well I'm very unlikely to be in jail unless he's got a bigger set, but to say that he may be doing this with turned draws is extremely optimistic imo.

RaoulFlush 10 years, 10 months ago

Donk calling the nfd is a decent play here imo

Basically any possible garbagr draw beside that came in too

No odds for drawing and hoping for a check otr seema pretty optimistic

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