Unpleasant spot with bottom set facing turn donk for pot.

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Unpleasant spot with bottom set facing turn donk for pot.

BN: $52.46 (Hero)
SB: $26.25
BB: $24.05
UTG: $25.42
HJ: $25.10
CO: $31.13
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 4 4
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.62, SB folds, BB calls $0.37
Flop ($1.34) 4 6 T (2 Players)
BB bets $1.28, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $2.72
Turn ($9.34) 4 6 T 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $8.92
Hero?

No stats, no reads. Everything is standard up until the turn when villain leads for pot, making the pot ~$17 and leaving himself only ~$10 behind. When he flats my flop raise, that pretty much turns his hand face up as either some sort of TP hand or a FD. When he donks for pot on the turn, it seems likely that his range is obv weighted heavily toward flushes, and I'd say the worst he can have here is like AdTx. 78 is also a possibility I guess, but that still beats me. Anyway, if villain was deeper this would be a pretty standard call imo, but because he hasn't got much behind I'm not really sure what to do. I'm getting express odds of ~2:1, and assuming that he's pot committed on any river I could say that with my implied odds it's more like ~3:1. Still, the river is only gonna pair the board like slightly more than 20% of the time, meaning that I'd need to be getting 4:1 to break even. This is assuming that I'm behind here, which I think is a fairly safe assumption given that most players slow down (especially OOP) when the flush hits if they don't have it themselves. Soo.......fold my set? :(

Loading 6 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy