TPmehKicker OTR. 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
TPmehKicker OTR. 100nl
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, WM2K raises to $4, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $3 Flop ($9, 2 players) 
WM2K bets $7, UTG+1 calls $7 Turn ($23, 2 players)
WM2K bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17 River ($57, 2 players)
WM2K ($181.43)?So heres a spot that comes up far too often for my liking. Villain is running 33/18 and has both a limping range and a raising range from this position. Unfortunately I don t think I ve managed to see him showdown something yet. Over the 100 or so hands I have on him he seems moderately aggressive postflop but obv nothing much to go on. So bet 2/3ish? c/c? or c/f?
So some analysis cause I don t think this is a spot we should be winging.
vs a!(ak,aq),66,22 we have 56%. Now this is assuming a few things. First he s not raising a set. Its a pretty good board to slowplay so definitely conceivable. Second he s both limping A3o and calling 3 barrels in a spot where I m showing a lot of strength and am at least somewhat unlikely to have a balanced bluffing range. So I would argue that its quite a bit thinner then the 56% indicates.
Now if we check. This is what I assume to be a value betting range for villain: AxJx,Ax9x,Ax6x,Ax2x,AxJy,Ax9y,Ax6y,Ax2y,66,22
Now for us to call a 3/4 pot bet he needs to bluff 11-13 combos of busted draws depending on how often he fastplays any of that range. Now what is interesting is that its actually kinda hard to find enough reasonable busted diamonds that don t have a 9 or a J (I don t think they ll bluff to get us off a A). KdQd,KdTd,Kd8d,Kd7d,QdTd,Qd8d,Qd7d,Td8d,Td7d,8d7d,7d5d,5d4d I picked out this range and its 12 combos. For it to be even close to a call he has to bluff all of them.
So now given this info is your decision. bet, c/c, c/f?
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That said, I think there´s really no right answer. Any line will probably over the long term be somewhat equal in EV.
That said, if we don´t know anything that we aim to exploit in Villain´s line (or the player-pool, if we have no reads on him) we should take a line that supports our entire gameplan best.
Do we have any reads on the playerpool (as we obv. don´t have reads on this particular guy)? If at all, I´d say that Villains are a) not valuebetting thinly enough and b) not bluffing the river often enough. That means, option b) x/c decreases in value and option c), namely x/f rises.
Still, I think for our overall gameplan we want to stay aggressive - if two lines (passive and aggressive) are somewhat close in EV. That means, we should definitely bet for value.
I kinda disagree with the suggested betsize though. Villain´s range consists of bluffcatching hands - and it´s quite likely that none of his bluffcatchers beat our holding (as I don´t expect him to show up with AQ/AK, probably not even AJ), so we´re ahead of his entire bluffcatching range. Do we have many bluffs in our range? I definitely think so, as we´re probably iso-raising him pretty light and attacking his wide range liberally in this spot. So, while we have many bluffs in our range we want to choose a betsize that supports our bluffy range (so we can take down the pot more often). Which means, we should bet way bigger - theoretically we should even overbet. A bigger bet polarizes our range even more - and as Villain has a bluffcatcher - which beats the air-part of our range, it doesn´t really matter for him if we bet 1/2 pot or 1.3x pot - the relative strength of his hands vs. our total range gets even better if our perceived range gets rid of all "thin value hands". That said, I´d bet quite big on this pot, at least close to pot, but I´d strongly consider overbetting and let him make a "hero-call" (which is not even as heroic as it sounds against our perceived range).
I also dont think our range is very bluffy on the river considering we probably only have ~ 10 flushdraw combos and bunch of them pick up showdown value on either 4th or 5th street making us much more likely to check.
Having said that i honestly don't know what the maximally exploitive betsize is here but i just wanted to point out that i think your reasoning/logic in this spot is incorrect.
I don't think he will limp flat AK or AQ.
We will lose value if we don't bet because he will check behind all his mediocre hands that he could call with like Ax, 9dxd, (77, 88).
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