TPmehKicker OTR. 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
TPmehKicker OTR. 100nl
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, WM2K raises to $4, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $3 Flop ($9, 2 players) 
WM2K bets $7, UTG+1 calls $7 Turn ($23, 2 players)
WM2K bets $17, UTG+1 calls $17 River ($57, 2 players)
WM2K ($181.43)?So heres a spot that comes up far too often for my liking. Villain is running 33/18 and has both a limping range and a raising range from this position. Unfortunately I don t think I ve managed to see him showdown something yet. Over the 100 or so hands I have on him he seems moderately aggressive postflop but obv nothing much to go on. So bet 2/3ish? c/c? or c/f?
So some analysis cause I don t think this is a spot we should be winging.
vs a!(ak,aq),66,22 we have 56%. Now this is assuming a few things. First he s not raising a set. Its a pretty good board to slowplay so definitely conceivable. Second he s both limping A3o and calling 3 barrels in a spot where I m showing a lot of strength and am at least somewhat unlikely to have a balanced bluffing range. So I would argue that its quite a bit thinner then the 56% indicates.
Now if we check. This is what I assume to be a value betting range for villain: AxJx,Ax9x,Ax6x,Ax2x,AxJy,Ax9y,Ax6y,Ax2y,66,22
Now for us to call a 3/4 pot bet he needs to bluff 11-13 combos of busted draws depending on how often he fastplays any of that range. Now what is interesting is that its actually kinda hard to find enough reasonable busted diamonds that don t have a 9 or a J (I don t think they ll bluff to get us off a A). KdQd,KdTd,Kd8d,Kd7d,QdTd,Qd8d,Qd7d,Td8d,Td7d,8d7d,7d5d,5d4d I picked out this range and its 12 combos. For it to be even close to a call he has to bluff all of them.
So now given this info is your decision. bet, c/c, c/f?
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