tilt hand review
Posted by guljo
Posted by
guljo
posted in
Low Stakes
tilt hand review
Thoughts on all streets and my thought process appreciated.
Hand was played on my mobile, so I have no stats.
Against balanced PF 3b range of (TT+,AQs+,A5s-A2s,KQs,AQo+,A5o-A4o) I have ~ 55% equity so with position advantage call seems the best move.
On the flop against the same range my equity is ~ 59%. I wonder here what part of his range is not Cbetting here? Perhaps QQ+ some part of the time? Reviewing all 3 options, call seems most natural, but would put me to the really tough spot on the turn, I basically have to fold any non J turn. I expect a random opponent to give up bluffs with zero equity OTT and his range is crushing me. So in this case it would be better to fold the flop.
Raising causes him to fold his bluffs and only his top range is left. So he should fold ~70% of his holdings. A bit more than click back looks like the best option here, if i make it 8$ and he folds more than 50% it is an +EV move that looks much better than fold or call. Fold seems like a second best option.
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I think you will have so many Qx that you can fold turn w/o being exploitable. I don't like a flop fold because this board hits your range a bit better than his and a lot of players just blindly stabs and then realize that truth OTT.
Fold the turn.
Fold the turn. You're not beating much. You only beat AK, TT, and any A5s- hands. Those are the only hands I see him betting twice with that you beat. If not fold the turn, then fold the river is a must.
Since, you do not know your opponent it best to give credit and wait for a better spot.
What is your BTN opening range? if its greater than 25% its tough not to include JJ in your 4bet range.
Queen high boards hit your 3bet calling range very hard, and you ahead of his bluffs too so at least calling the flop is mandatory.
You may have enough Qx, sets and JT that you don't need to continue with much else OTT
make a note of villain's sizing that he bet slightly over half pot on each street.
Some villain's are mindlessly betting so that calling down would be okay but i would want a read first before i do so.
What do you mean about taking a note on bet sizing is this on this particular player or in general? How could note like this help me in future?
Thanks for the comments.
What do you guys think about option to raise flop a bit more than min?
What do you think about the ranges that I assigned? If there is JTs there than I am missing many other hands as well.
Ya just 4bet / call off pre imo. As played we can fold the turn
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