Some analysis of my database on profitability of pocket pairs
Posted by LuckyMer
Posted by LuckyMer posted in Low Stakes
Some analysis of my database on profitability of pocket pairs
Recently I started folding small pocket pairs (55-22) from BB, but want to check if it is a mistake.
Made a bit of analysis of my cold calls preflop with pocket pairs.
EV of flopping a set ~14bb, fullhouse no trips on board ~15bb, quads ~20bb.
EV of flopping set is pretty much the same vs UTG, MP, CO, SB but vs BTN it is lower - only around 10bb.
EV of flopping sets with 55-22 is the same ~14bb.
Overpairs:
77- 0bb
88 1bb
99 1.5bb
TT 2.5bb
JJ 2.5bb
QQ 0bb (I think must be around 3-4bb)
KK 5.5bb
AA 6.5bb
Flopping a set or better happens ~11.5% of the time. So If I will not bluff when miss, I need to call preflop no more than 14bb * 11.5% = 1.6bb
Checked my cold call vs 1 raiser with pockets:
55-22 are only plus EV on BTN (0.6bb) and BB (-0.5bb).
99-66 are plus EV on every position (0.45bb overall).
TT+ plus EV
What's funny - found that sometimes I call KK-QQ on SB and BB and they are minus EV calls. Slowplay is bad.
When calling a 3-bet situation is different
EV of flopping a set or better ~35bb.
Overpairs:
99- minuses
TT 2bb
JJ 6bb
QQ -2bb (something bad about QQ is happening obv)
KK 30bb
AA 10bb
So If I will not bluff when miss, I need to call preflop no more than 35bb * 11.5% = 4bb which is not the price you mostly pay in game...
Checked my call 3-bet with pockets, TT+ are plus EV, 99- minus EV.
AA 30bb
KK 10bb
QQ 2bb
JJ 3.5bb
TT 0.5bb
99-66 -0.9bb
55-22 -2.2bb (a bit better than folding if we open x3)
Positional data has almost no difference which is kind of unexpected.
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