Reasonable bluff on turn/river with QJs on a King-high board?
Posted by belrio42
Posted by
belrio42
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Reasonable bluff on turn/river with QJs on a King-high board?
This is 20NL equivalent. Villain is Tight-ish reg, straightforward from what I've seen.
Hero is in HJ with QdJd. Villain is in CO. Effective stack size is 100BB.
Preflop, UTG limps and CO posts a live BB. I raise to 5BB, CO calls, everyone else folds.
Flop is 7c5c4s. It goes check/check.
Turn is Kd. I bet 6BB, CO calls.
River is 7d. I bet 17BB, CO calls.
CO wins with Kh8h.
How do you judge the play here?
Should I c-bet flop? I don't like a c-bet because I have no draws at all, not even any backdoor draws, and I don't have much of a range advantage, if any. Villain could have all the sets and all the two pairs and all the draws.
I think turn bet is reasonable because I have lots of AK, KQ, KJs in my range which will check flop, and the check/check on the flop means that he has a marginal hand. Perhaps bigger sizing is required?
After he calls the turn bet, should I bet river? I think I should either give up, or bet smaller on the river (maybe 40% pot). His range should be mostly busted draws, some small pairs, and a King. He's probably never folding a King, and a busted draw will not call any bet. Maybe Ace-high or small pair will find a hero call for a small bet, but I don't think it's likely.
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When you bet small on the river, it's not hard for villain to make lighter calls. Otherwise, I like betting bigger on the river due to these reasons:
• He checked back OTF (somehow he caps his range)
• You used a small bet OTT, which forces the villain to defend a slighty wider range compared to a big bet. Also, the K is a good card for your range.
• On the river, I don't mind to fire a big barrel since you put a lot of pressure on these floating combos and medium values that called OTT.
Villain ended up with Kx, it doesn't matter. if you try to make some exercise and compare the villain's calling range OTT and villain's calling range OTR, you may perceive that villain will have to call with marginal hands in order to don't overfold, and that's why I like betting big and put pressure on these combos.
By the river, it looks to me very much like villain has some kind of pair or maybe a stubborn A-high. I don't think draws are very likely, because I think villain would bet a FD or a good SD on the flop, and I don't think they would call your turn bet with just a gutshot. Trips also aren't very likely, because again, villain would probably bet a 7 OTF.
I like the river bet, because with the sizing you chose, I would expect villain to fold their marginal pairs and A-highs. I don't think your bluff would be nearly as effective, if you chose a smaller size.
Thanks for the comments. It seems that there is some merit to betting fairly big on the river. I have been experimenting with various bet sizes in these spots. In general, I'm getting decent results with bigger bets, but also decent results with smaller bets.
Some people seem to view a smaller bet as strong, and fold, while calling down bigger (but not huge) bets.
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