pot odds and realizing equity problem
Posted by d0zer
Posted by
d0zer
posted in
Low Stakes
pot odds and realizing equity problem
I can't quite wrap my head around the problem of how do I know if I am making a profitable defend or not.
For example, say SB is opening 50% in 6max if folded to and we have 75o in BB, if he opens to 3x we need 33% equity to call, however 75o has 32.5%, now obviously this is a close spot and won't matter much, but if we change SB opening to say 60% we now have 35.1% equity. From that it should be clear that given we are IP + pot odds we should be calling, however we often don't get to realize our equity and will get barreled off our hand etc. My question is, is there a way to factor in possible postflop outcomes, or should I be approaching this by making the best play on each street, so say on a flop of T52r villain bets 3/4 psb, so 4.5 into 6bb meaning it has to work 43% for him to bluff ATC meaning we need to defend by raising or calling at least 57% of our range (which given that we "should" be defending 75o here means we will be defending about 70% pre of which like 10-15% will be 3-bet probably).
That however will amount to roughly 600 combos pre, 57 of which will be around 340 combos on the flop which is quite a lot. This example got slightly carried away and doesn't quite illustrate my problem as well as I would have liked to perhaps, so why cant we defend like AJo in BB vs UTG 15% opener when we have roughly 40% equity, how much equity of that will we get to realize and how to quantify it is my question I suppose, both for IP and OOP.
Hope someone can throw me a bone here, thanks !
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