NL5z Turned Top Two facing 2x pot raise
Posted by downflux01
Posted by
downflux01
posted in
Low Stakes
NL5z Turned Top Two facing 2x pot raise
Hey guys
No stats on villain
https://www.weaktight.com/h/5e12042bd390434b528b46ce
Preflop: Think we got an easy ISO vs the Limp, BB calls along with first limper
Flop: Checks to us and we have a strong hand that wants to get value & build the pot v weaker TP, MP and draws. Game Theory wise I know that we cannot go too huge here and Im not sure whether I want to size up even more as an exploit. We get a call from BB.
I put his range mostly on stuff like KJ+, JTs+, AJ, J9s, Q9s and FDs.
Turn: Think this is a good card, majority of his holdings pick up a pair along with their straight draw. Plus if he has something like QT. we dominate that heavily. For those reasons I size it up and get shoved on for like 2x pot.
Ingame I was like "Well no way I can fold such a strong hand, we got top two and he can do that with QT as well". In hindsight, I dont think there are too many combinations of weaker holdings that go for such a line.
https://gyazo.com/7f1b0787dbb91c51566ba9e35f3f23c0
We are at most chopping with some KQ and there isnt even too many QT in his range (and I was being generous, giving him flats with QTo and , which I dont think he would do too often pre) and we still are around 32% equity, which is below the needed 36% after his shove. So Id rather fold this combination and call of with my sets (and the straights I decide to bet OTF, which will be probably mostly Jc9c or AcJc)
What do you think?
Loading 2 Comments...
You've got 29 combos of sets+ in your range and it's a massive overbet, I think you're fine letting this go, also if we're going with the assumption that this is AJ, J9s, 77 or a bluff then you'd just much rather call down AA as that blocks 6 combos of value and also has a similar number of outs to KQ depending on which hand we're up against (3 outs to chop, 3 outs to win or 6 outs to win as opposed to 4 outs to win)
I like your line and sizing, and I probably fold turn. We're actually in the middle of our range, even with top two, and because of the sizing he took over your large sizing, we don't have to defend that often. Especially with the Qc in our hand, taking away a lot of the pair+FD+SD type hands he could have, seems like a fold.
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