What 7x-8x does he have except 76s,77-88 that are just calling flop? He`s not flatting A7-A8s vs utg.

I dont like having a raising range vs utg on this board since hes gonna have gss, oes ,bdsd+bdfd he`ll double/triple barrel or (b,x/c,x/c decent %).

edit: you're right; for a minute I was being dumb and thinking hero was BTN when I was thinking about his cold-calling range pre. On further thought I like a c/c or bet OTF.

You really think villain bet-calls these hands on the flop? I'd be very surprised if he does.

I agree its a value shove though. I don't even think its that close.

I sometimes x/raise ATs+, KJs+ w/ bdfd

If you do that with the right frequency, it allows you to do it with your set too, In that case, I'd x/r 44 and 55 too. I dont understand why you said 66 is a x/r but the 2 other sets are x/c.. I mean, UTG doesnt have str8 in his range, but lots of overpairs that you can get value from. I guess you can get the x/r + one street of value against overpair in this spot.

I agree with cpau. I would also consider raising a little bigger here OTF, since you will be quite polarized given what you said about x/r'ing KJs, ATs w/ BDFD. I also think it's a good board to do it on v UTG because his range is quite broadway heavy and by raising aggressively like you suggested we can get him off overcards a.s.o. so the sets should definitely be in there too I think.

14% has all of the : A2-A3s, A7-A8s,87-98s, 77-88

Almost any decision I make is going to be exploitative.
I'd be x/raising strong broadways with backdoors because
1)I think he will be somewhat overfolding, ie I dont expect him to stack off with AA once I x/r otf. Im most likely going to be overbluffing in this spot, but given population tendencies, I think thats fine.
2)blockers, so it's less likely that he has a hand that can call even one raise, in case Im wrong about AA.
I dont really expect him to adjust.
Thats why I'm willing to x/r 66 and not 44: I think he is just folding too often. With 66 I get the benefit of coolering worse sets and I think that compensates for the fact that I may get one less street of value from AA on a lot of runouts. By raising 44 Im giving up some percentage of value I'd get from hands that he is going to barrel but fold to a raise+I'm sometimes gonna end up on a wrong side of a setup.

This spot sucks, because I still may get value from worse sets and possible twopairs+occasional herocall with like QQ (my guess/assumptions can be wrong), but he does have AA, A3s and possibly even 33?

Obviously all of these are just guesses. I may be wrong, I have no idea.

oh and fwiw I think that he does have 33...sample is not that big, he could be running bad utg. And you can construct 15% opening range that includes 33 (AA-22,AKo-AJo,KQo-KJo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs).

"Open any pair" is too widespread idea in the community to assume that he golds 22-44

@ SPrince - I open a different 14% from utg. Only difference is I open 22,33, ATo and I dont open T9s, 98s, 87s and nothing worse than A8s.

I like the fact that the SCs and Axs in your range allow us to hit the flop on lower flop tho.

yeah I didnt think of leading.
But...assuming he raises flop with AA, doesnt he almost always xb ott? Which sucks for us...and lead/call, lead is just way too cluster** of a line.

But I guess it could work (meaning lead/call, check/eval)

if he doesnt bet/call flop with overpair, then, hero's strategy to x/r broadways with bdfd is pure gold ! He would be way too exploitable if he bet/folds too many overpair imo.

The way I see it is this:
-the board hits our range pretty well - it is not one that he might stab w/ 100% of his range,
-our CC @ SB is pretty narrow and pair/strong BRDW heavy - not much FE to be had,
-he might not be planning to get 3 streets with most of his overpairs, but considering that leading might be perceived as a weak overpair that doesn't really want to XC, but doesn't want to XF either, so it leads, he might call us down with hands that otherwise check a street (overpairs, to be precise),
-XR in this exact spot looks incredibly strong, I think, and I wouldn't be surprised if he BF most of his overpairs,
-given that leading looks significantly weaker, he might go out of line with some hands that we would like to be XR as a bluff here (like 2OvC w/ bdFD or the others that you mentioned).

to be precise, I never said that I expect him to fold overpairs otf. I expect him to not stack off with them, meaning fold ott or otr....

Yeah, I know, I just said that I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. ;)

would you lead exploitatively or balanced in spot like this ?

Depends on the player, but I'd usually lead with a balanced range, and then, if I knew Villain's tendencies, I would play exploitively.

no, A3ss

A3s is about the only 3x he can have from UTG..

Its kind of a standard to me to flat PPs vs an utg raiser at micro's since people tend to give you action from utg when you spike your set. Anything im not seing/understanding correctly ?

I read your answer multiple times and after not understanding it well over few tries, wondered if you can elaborate a little on what you said
Confusing me is don't you think you have enough of implied odds 100 bb deep, and , second, if not, what hands do you find playable from SB ? :)

are you calling it IP ?

If the blinds don't squeeze a lot, I would.

I am folding this PF as well. It's just a bad spot to set-mine OOP and against an active player. I talked about this to my coach and when we were coming up with a SB strategy he advised me to play raise/fold from the SB v UTG and MP. I think that makes sense, since it is much easier to play than having a calling range. l think there may be some extra EV in having a CC range but I don't think it matters too much. That is probably going to change at higher limits.

I think your range will be pretty face up when you flat in the SB, also I would pay attention to the opening sizes. I like e.g. flatting sth. like KQo v an MP min-raise, I think against minraises is when you can start having a calling range in the SB.

Even though villain is tight from UTG, his low cbet% and WWSF makes me believe he is not the type that fights a lot for pots postflop, and therefore I would probably add hands like 77, AJs, KJs, QJs (maybe JTs).

Thanks, guys. Appreciated as always. :)

@Diamond:
I don't really get why a range being face up is such an issue at lower stakes. Do you expect people to own you postflop every time you call there?
I also don't expect the BB to SQZ all that much given our CC range is tight and UTG's range is strong in the first place.

What kind of SB 3b range vs EP/MP would you suggest, then?

SB v UTG, I 3bet something like KJs+, ATs+, AQo+, TT+ as a default. I don't think it's wrong to have a flatting range like you suggest, it probably doesn't make a huge difference. I feel that I start x/f'ing the flop too much when I start calling the SB w/ PPs because most people c-bet a little too much rather than too little (like this guy). You are right that ranges being face up is probably not much of an issue. vkartman also made a good point that you save a lot of rake by not playing a postflop pot vs a strong range.

I think you will have to x/r bluff this board a ton to make up for the fact that you won't be able to stack people with your sets very often because it is quite obvious that you are set-mining there. I think this is different when we are in the BB obviously because not only do we get a better price but we also see a flop 100% of the time when we call. Even if the BB isn't that aggressive, seeing every flop guaranteed is quite nice becaue sometimes the BB will have a hand.

Also, if we really call a fairly narrow range and we want to raise the flop w/ all of our sets, you will end up in a situation where you x/r 1/3-1/2 of your range... Not sure whether that's so great.