NL20 - Top set vs overbet from a passive reg
Posted by ILoseFlips
Posted by
ILoseFlips
posted in
Low Stakes
NL20 - Top set vs overbet from a passive reg
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (6 Players)
SB: $24.81
BB: $4.37
UTG: $23.35 (Hero)
MP: $32.80
CO: $20.00
BN: $43.05
BB: $4.37
UTG: $23.35 (Hero)
MP: $32.80
CO: $20.00
BN: $43.05
Vilain is a reg, pretty bad in my opinion. On the passive side. Running 22/16, Cold call BTN 18%, 3.8% 3bet, WWSF 36%, SD 30%, RB 23%. 2K hands
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is UTG with
J
J
, , ,
Flop
($1.50)
8
J
3
,
Decided to X here with top set, pretty standard, bet is fine too obv.
Turn
($1.50)
8
J
3
9
, ,
I don't think shoving is great here.
River
($9.50)
8
J
3
9
6
, ,
I except him to have bet 88/33 OTF and I don't think he is bluffing a lot too, He reps, 99 and QTs (don't know if QTo is in his range, given position i don't think but can't be sure), so it's close but I'm not 100% sure he will overbet 99 here, it really looks like the absolute nutz, so I think folding is probably better.
Thoughts?
ty :)
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Close spot but I don't think that we can lay this down. He shouldn't really have QT (because that's a fold preflop imo) and he might bomb 99, 88, 33 or 98s here.
Hum, why would he not bet 33/88 OTF at least with some frequency ? On the other hand it would be surprising to see QT not being bet OTF ... Given you are at the absolut top of your range call but it's hard to put him on a range here.
Folding would be awful. 99 is very likely.
Given player type, I'm pretty sure he doesn't play 89s this way (at least not overbetting). 88/33 I except him to bet flop the vast majority of the time (he tends to fast play his big hands from what I've seen). So it leaves QTs and 99 which are the biggest part of his range. It's 3 combos vs 4, given pot odds it's close imo.
I need 35% equity and have nearly 43% against QTs/99 but I'm not 100% sure he plays 99 this way, as I said it's in general the absolute nutz when this type of player overbets. Can't be sure he didn't call QTo too preflop because he is tilting or for what ever reasons. But it more looks like a call imo.
3 combos of 99, 4 combos of QT and we have some odds.
I wouldn't fold. QTs is likely to fold pre/bet flop, and I think he might occasionally slowplay 88 which makes it a call.
99 is much more likely than QT, because QTo not in his range, QTs might not be in his range, and if it is, QT usually bets the flop. Villain can also bluff. I would expect to be good here over 50%.
Whilst your arguments are reasonable, the fact is that passive reg overbets the river. He is much more likely to have 1st nuts than anything else.
Its still a call, simply because of the odds, but its not like we're winning 50+% of the time
@Samu and Taaazz: the guy has a stab flop of 15% over 2K hands (it's why I don't like my flop check but I didn't pay attention to this stat in game) so he might Xb QT here.
Oh, okay, but I don't think it changes much tbh. And he's more likely to XB 88/33 than QTs, imo.
i dont know how much hand you have on him,but this cant be fold !!!!!!!!!! you dont have better hand in your range here ,you must def it!!!
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