NL20 - Top set vs overbet from a passive reg
Posted by ILoseFlips
Posted by
ILoseFlips
posted in
Low Stakes
NL20 - Top set vs overbet from a passive reg
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (6 Players)
SB: $24.81
BB: $4.37
UTG: $23.35 (Hero)
MP: $32.80
CO: $20.00
BN: $43.05
BB: $4.37
UTG: $23.35 (Hero)
MP: $32.80
CO: $20.00
BN: $43.05
Vilain is a reg, pretty bad in my opinion. On the passive side. Running 22/16, Cold call BTN 18%, 3.8% 3bet, WWSF 36%, SD 30%, RB 23%. 2K hands
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is UTG with
J
J
, , ,
Flop
($1.50)
8
J
3
,
Decided to X here with top set, pretty standard, bet is fine too obv.
Turn
($1.50)
8
J
3
9
, ,
I don't think shoving is great here.
River
($9.50)
8
J
3
9
6
, ,
I except him to have bet 88/33 OTF and I don't think he is bluffing a lot too, He reps, 99 and QTs (don't know if QTo is in his range, given position i don't think but can't be sure), so it's close but I'm not 100% sure he will overbet 99 here, it really looks like the absolute nutz, so I think folding is probably better.
Thoughts?
ty :)
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