NL100 Flush 8 high vs X/Shove river 120 deep

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

NL100 Flush 8 high vs X/Shove river 120 deep

BB: $229.95
HJ: $157.40
CO: $118.15 (Hero)
BN: $38
SB: $98.95
i played him for years but only 100 hands last 3 month (made my hud to display only last 3months stats)
BB is an agro reg who play NL200 too, hes agro pre and post flop
his stats 24/22 6% 3bet, WTSD 26% over 100 hands
Preflop ($1.50) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 7
HJ folds, Hero raises to $3, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2
seems a standard open
his "call open" statsd his 6% (do you agree its the good one to chose, i never know if i sould take this one or VPIP-PFR), he 3bets somethink like 6% in sb
I struggle to give him ranges because i have no read but he s a reg
it could be
3bet oop 6% AA-JJ,AKs-A9s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s
so calling range 6% TT-77,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo
so he never has a flush river and its an easy call

but it could be
3bet oop 6% AA-JJ,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-AQs
so calling range 6% TT-55,AJs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s
so he has a lot of flush river

what do you think is the good range?
Flop ($6.50) 3 A 2 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50
seems a flop i would CB a lot and i m not afraid of calling vs a X/R given im ip and deep
he dos not seems to fold a lot so he can has paires from 55 to TT, Ax, flush draws , i dont seee many 2 pairs and sets
Turn ($15.50) Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10
i think its a good barelling card to make him fold his flushdraws and pairs
River ($35.50) 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $28, BB raises to $212.45
seems he cant have a flush because he called oop twice but what can he X/F but flushes and certainly better flush than me

given a defensive point of view he shoves 100.65 in a pot of 63.5, so i need to call 38.7% of my range river to be inexploitable
so it seems i have to call a flush, BUT if he only do it with flushes he does not exploit me and i can fold

as you see i m totally lost even if i try to do math to go deep, i really dont see any bluff so i think i have to fold

thanks for your opinions

10 Comments

Loading 10 Comments...

Aleksandra ZenFish 12 years, 1 month ago
Well he can bluff there with Ace of clubs in hand ? If he has read that his Ace pair is beat he may turn it in bluff you cant call of specially if he read s you are a nit
He may be repping flush since you were barreling from flop~ he might have put you on Ax hand you gotto fold because he can anticipate you dont have flush most likely and is willing to gamble that spot
LetMeShipIt 12 years, 1 month ago
It sucks to fold the flush here but I can't see what he's bluffing with here or what he is valueshoving that is worse than youre hand.
John Morrey 12 years, 1 month ago
I dunno why you're worried about being exploited by CRAI river bluffs at 100NL unless you're playing in some pretty insane games/very good aware players. He would have to be doing this a lot as a bluff to be exploitable here.

In fact I think this is a bluff so rarely that I'm probably just going to fold because it's probably exactly what it looks like a high % of the time---a better flush.
WM2K 12 years, 1 month ago
Ya we are definitely exploitable folding this but remember we can exploit a villain who doesnt bluff enough by folding strong hands. Vs the majority of the 100nl field I agree that this is a fold. I try to remember and tell myself that I need to bluff c/r rivers but never seem to myself enough.
thedoors 12 years, 1 month ago
thats also my thought but wanted to be sure, i also dont X/R river as bluff often enough, dont know what stakes it begins to be a often used weapon
John Morrey 12 years, 1 month ago
No I understand and I didn't mean to make it seem like I thought it was a dumb question cause it's a good one and I personally would find a lot of trouble folding this in practice.

Also it makes me think about how I should be thinking about a lot of my spots and ways that I could be being exploited or ways that I could exploit (like CRAI here as a bluff more often).

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy