NL50 88 vs flop check+raise
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Deactivated User
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Low Stakes
NL50 88 vs flop check+raise
CO: $68.38 (Hero)
BN: $31.22
SB: $69.79
BB: $50
HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds
villain is 23/16/3.
we dont have a history.
when i get check+raised on the flop, his value range [or at least the range he never folds] is probably something like 33-TT. given the size of his check+raise, im getting 11.5:4 on a call, which means i need just better than 25% equity. against a range of 33-TT, i have 33.6% equity, and thats not even including air hands.
i feel like 3betting here is overplaying my hand, but i suspect 3b+folding might make the hand easier to play; if i get called, i can just check down in position? thoughts?
anyway, as played ... when villain leads turn for under half pot, his bet size simply isnt very convincing. if he had a set, he would most certainly have bet bigger, and honestly, a hand like KQ is just such a small part of his range. but is calling the turn a leak? its the sort of ambiguous spot where i feel like i may be calling too often with marginal hands.
the rivered set makes life easy for me, and given how quickly he folded, it seems likely villain had air all the way. but if river had been say .. the 9c instead ... do i call again? according to pokerstove, 88 has 33.8% equity vs {TT-33,AKs,KQs} on a 6h3s5dKc9c board, and given the half pot bet size, i only need 25% equity to call.
honestly, these sorts of spots always leave me feeling uneasy.
Loading 3 Comments...
Villain's stats put him on a tighter range than most. The question I'd ask myself on the flop when contemplating his check raise, is how you plan on playing out the rest of the hand? Are you prepared to call both the turn and river as well? His stats suggest that he's not the type to triple barrel. Which means in the long run, calling all three streets is a -EV play.
Bet-calling the flop is standard. He only check-raises 66/33/55 for value and maybe 65 if he defends pretty widely.
The turn bet doesn't feel strong at all. He'd want to get value/protection from the hands I mentioned above, so it feels like a spewy raise with 6x, 77, 4x or something in that range of hand strength. A hand that's too strong to c/f, but not strong enough to blast.
Calling is best.
River is obvious. 74 already had you beat, and you have to assume he doesn't defend that to a 3x Ep open.
As for this spot in general. It's hard to play for anyone, and you'll be in tough spots.
There is no standard way to play this that all the pros secretly know.
Being mindful of his range and getting info from bets on later streets will hopefully make you play the hand correctly.
Nothing to addd, good post.
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