nl100 3bet pot 2 pair ip vs X/shove monotone AJx 100d

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nl100 3bet pot 2 pair ip vs X/shove monotone AJx 100d

CO: $94.50 (Hero)
BN: $71.55
SB: $124.67
BB: $228.42
HJ: $48.37
BB 17/14 4% 3bet , 7% 3bet on BB, 360 hands CB 62% X/R flop 11% (9)
Preflop ($1.50) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt Q Q
HJ folds, Hero raises to $3, BN folds, SB folds, BB raises to $11, Hero calls $9
this guy is tight, doesnt 3bet a lot so i thnik i cant 4bet/call shove
i find it weak to fold QQ to 3bet so i call ip not sure hwo to play vs 3 barrel with an overpaire...expecting him to Check somewhere to control stakcs
let say he 3bets 7% BB AA-TT,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs
Flop ($24.50) 4 A J (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16, BB raises to $216.42
i have to call 66.5 to win 123, i need 35%
what can he X/R shove? sets, 2 pairs all draws?
that would be TcTh,TdTh,TsTh,JdJc,JsJc,JsJd,QcQh,KcQh,KdQh,KsQh,AcQh,AdQh,AsQh,KhQc,KdQc,KsQc,AdQc,AsQc,KhQh,KcKh,
KdKh,KsKh,AcKh,AdKh,AsKh,KcQc,AdKc,AsKc,AcKd,AsKd,AcKs,AdKs,AcTc,AcJc,AcQc,AcKc,AdAc,AsAc,AdTd,AdJd,
AdKd,AsAd,AsTs,AsJs,AsKs

Board: 4h Ah Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.522% 78.30% 02.22% 34884 988.50 { AcAd, AcAs, AdAs, KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QcQh, JcJd, JcJs, JdJs, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AcQc, AcJc, AdJd, AsJs, AcTc, AdTd, AsTs, KcQc, KhQh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQh, AdQc, AdQh, AsQc, AsQh, KcQh, KdQc, KdQh, KhQc, KsQc, KsQh }
Hand 1: 19.478% 17.26% 02.22% 7689 988.50 { QdQs }

so i have to fold, i only got 19%

what do you think of it?

12 Comments

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vanity02 12 years, 2 months ago
Yeah I would say just fold here and dont look back, your never really ahead and when you are they have a ton of outs. If you had 2nd nuts you we can reconsider, but without a heart just fold.
vanity02 12 years, 2 months ago
I'm not 100% sure if it is right or not, but I personally vs a 7% range I 4bet/call off. I normally flat vs really nitty 3b % ~4. But I think this really depends on how much you 3bet/4bet. I have a really wide range so I potentially can get called off by JJ in some situations vs 2 specific regs. But in my exp, when we get it in with QQ vs AA KK if we took a flop if the board came 972 we are going broke anyways. VS AK on 972flop we never stack them. There are only 12 combos of AA/KK and 16 combos of AK, so we are running into AK more than AA/KK.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.90% 40.16% 12.74% { KK+, AKs, AKo }
MP3 47.10% 34.37% 12.74% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
John Mackay 12 years, 2 months ago
not even blinking before i click fold ! Btw preflop guy may be inclined to 3B you a bit wider b/c you haven't got a full stack (not sure what the dynamic is though but when i see <100bb stacks i 3B more).
event78 12 years, 2 months ago
It's never bad to flat QQ in this spot as you keep worse hands in his range and you are IP.

Snap fold flop, it's the bottom of your value range plus you are not far ahead when you have the best hand (AA/JJ/AJs?/flushes crush your hand).
efas 12 years, 2 months ago
I would check back the flop, i don't really expect him to give us the initiation and play a check/guessing game with Jx or a flush draw hand. More likely he is giving up and we don't need to worry about being outdrawn or he is trying to play in a fancy way with a hand that has a lot equity vs us or already crushing our queens.
thedoors 12 years, 2 months ago
Do You tkink he will donk all his fd? Because i dont
James Hudson 12 years, 2 months ago
As ethereal said, he's going to bet all his good flush draws unless he wants to check jam them. He's also going to have very few weak flush draws due to his tight 3 betting range. I don't get the flop bet at all to be honest. We don't 4 bet preflop because his 3 bet range is too tight to get it in vs but then when the flop comes ace high monotone and we have no flush draw we bet when checked to.
EthereaL 12 years, 2 months ago
He probably does. If he checks them, it is with the intention to x-r not x-c imo. As played it is easy fold. You have a bluff catcher, you don't know if he even has bluffs and even his bluffs have good equity vs you. I would rather check back the flop. As efas said - if he gave up, you can bet the turn after he checks again.

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