Math Question With EV's Calculation
Posted by evricrose
Posted by
evricrose
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Low Stakes
Math Question With EV's Calculation
Hello guys!
I tried to calculate EV of 4bet/folding with a specific hand (QTs) to choose the best action to take between flatting3bet or 4bet/fold
Let's consider this scenario:
Hero Open's 3bbs from the BTN with QTs and BB 3bet's 12 bbs.
I want to calculate if the EV of 4bet/fold QTs is better than flatting vs 3bet
Call3betsize=9 bbs
4betsize=27 bbs
Let's assume the next variables are correct:
In theory Villain's MDF vs 4bet should be >= 0,36 But actually his defense vs 4bet is = 0,55 (5bet shove =0,22 and 4betcall=0,33)
So Villain's Foldequity=0,45
Values calculated from Piosolver: (let's assume they are correct)
EV of Flatting QTs vs villain 3betrange =9,29 =>EVProfit=+0,29=>ROI%=3,2%
EV of 4bet QTs when Villain's call our 4bet (excluding foldequity preflop) = 21,25=>EVProfit=-5,75=>ROI%=-21,32%
Calculations:
Now i want to do the math of our EVProfit when we 4betFold including the Fold equity of the villain , so i use this formula:
(W%Potbefore4bet)+(L%)((4betcall%EVProfitwhen4betcall)+(5betshove%(-4betsize)))=
=(0,4515,5)+(0,55)((0,33-5,75)+(0,22(-27)))=+2,54=>ROI%=9,43%
Conclusion:
4betFold=9,43%
Flat vs 3bet = 3,2%
4betFold ROI > Flat ROI
My question is if this is the right formula and the right way to make this calculations . Thanks in advance !
Loading 6 Comments...
It's impossible to calculate the EV of flatting. Unless we talk about GTO or simplify the game considerably.
Hello crazyriver . the text that i write was confuse. I already change a little bit.. my bad. The ev of flatting is already given by my solver calculations . Of course it's not the exact number, it's just an example to use. My question is more about the formula used on the bottom assuming those values are correct. But of course we can discuss other things too
Yes, the calculation itself is fine. Although in cash games it doesn't make sense to use ROI, especially the way you calculated it here. You should rather compare absolute big blinds effective values.
Think of it this way. You start the hand with 100bbs. Given your numbers, when you flat you're expected to end the hand with 109,29bbs and when you 4bet/fold you end up with 102,54bbs. Which one is a better decision?
That makes sense! Thanks
Hey,
It’s barely impossible to calculate ev of flatting.
Ev of a hand depends on 2 factors :
Equity vs Vilain s range.
EQR
EQR is something you can’t calculate easily , because it depends on a ton of factor like SPR, position, betsize vilains is using etc..
So with helps of « theory » and a solver, you can calculate which option is the best, but impossible to calculate in practice, because you don’t have acces to exactly what is Vilain s range, (which impact calculation of your equity vs his range) and also because you can’t calculate EQR.
Hey there! Yes i agree with that. If you get EQR and equity you get the EV. Piosolver gives EQR values for each hand but of course you need to insert the correct inputs and do it for several flops to get an average number. I wanted to use those values plus Fold equity prelfop from the villain on my bottom formula because PIO don't get in consideration fold equity preflop. But i wasn't sure if formula was correct!
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