Marginal pair in 3 bet pot. 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
Marginal pair in 3 bet pot. 100nl
BB: $98.83 (98.8 bb)
MP: $96.50 (96.5 bb)
CO: $112.83 (112.8 bb)
Hero (BTN): $98.50 (98.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7h 8h
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $6
Flop: ($16.50) 9h 8c 3c (2 players)
BB bets $8, Hero calls $8
Turn: ($32.50) Kd (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero calls $20
River: ($72.50) 9c (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero all in?
Villains a 23/17 type reg who isnt the most positionally aware. 3 betting 18-20% in given positions. Preflop is marginal but ok I think. We have 37% (need 35%) vs that range and this hand holds its equity nicely.
Postflop he c bets pretty aggressively. 75% overall and maybe a bit more in 3 bet pots. This is a bad board for him though so maybe he tones it down. His turn bet is 64% overall but this is a gin card for him to bluff as well as pick up a lot of value hands. This is def where it gets tricky. I m inclined to fold despite this hand being probably high enough in our distribution that we should be calling. Havent run all the numbers yet though to get a better estimation of this. Something that is interesting is if he s betting his whole preflop range here he has 52%. Perhaps this shows how good this card is for him.
OTR seems like a thin value bet so I m tempted to jam. Really amazing price on the bluff but he s getting an amazing price on the call as well.
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On the river I don´t think you EVER get anything better than your hand to fold, so the only question is if you can profitably call. Readless, I doubt that - and obviously you´re not exploitable by folding your actual holding, because it´s at the absolute bottom of your range at the river. Villain´s more likely to either x/f or shove as a bluff (as he´d probably do with all value-hands), so you might own yourself against TT-QQ, KQ if you call in this spot.
I admit that this is something Im only just starting to work on, but I really dont like calling the flop with this hand because we know he barrels and so we know we have to call but our hand is really vunerable. Would we better off just raising flops like this to fold out AX Kx Qx type hands and out 78 offers some legitimacy in that.
What would we do on a blank turn? do we call again and give him chance to river a scare card (that really does improve his range) or do we plan on raising blank turns? If thats the case then I guess we call the flop and fold to a scare card on the turn or raise a blank depending on what happens.
If we just call down, and an A,K or Q strengthens his range to the point that our life is difficult (it improves a lot of his range) then we have to be aware on the flop that this is going to happen on the turn almost 25% of the time and if we just plan on calling the turn then we know on the flop that we are going to be in a tough spot by the river almost 50% of the time. To me that dosen't sound like an intelligent way to play.
These days people seem to barrel a lot and that makes me think that calling down with a vulnerable hand isnt the way to go.
I think we either need to raise more flops or more blank turns and give up more on scare cards.
What makes me want to raise the flop more is that we know a scare card will come 25% of the time on the turn so we only get to make our turn move 75% of the time, yet if raising were part of our plan then we know right now that we can do it 100% of the time, whereas if we call we are down to 75%.
Is what I'm thinking fundamentally wrong? If so, why?
Think about the board texture, it´s pretty unlikely that Villain cbets a hand (and might it be AK) IF he´s willing to fold against a raise.
That said, I think you should definitely call the flop, call turn, fold river.
WM2K: I think this is just a psychological thing, and I´m oftentimes "guilty" of this myself. You definitely have a call turn, fold river range - even on blank rivers - and I don´t see why this actual hand shouldn´t be a pretty decent candidate for that. It´s not as if this is the top of your range you´ll get to the river with. Unless you´ve split your ranges too much on flop (i.e. by raising overpairs, folding Kx and stuff) or turn (raising strong hands, folding all medium pairs etc.) you have plenty of hands you can still "keep him honest" on the river and don´t "have" to call with 87s to prevent him from auto-firing any2 and make profit. Agree?
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