Live 1-3 Large Straddled Pot
Posted by Ryan
Posted by
Ryan
posted in
Mid Stakes
Live 1-3 Large Straddled Pot
Hero covers table
Bttn straddles $5 and has a $400ish stack
SB calls and has a $250 stack
3 other players call and have between $200-$300 stacks
Hero has KJhh CO and raises to $36(often would make it $40, but thought we could shave a bit off and have similar fold equity)
Button calls pretty quick and is a passive player from what I can tell. I expect him to flat things like AK preflop, maybe even JJ or QQ(at a lower percentage), think he will cold calls things like AQo as well as mid pocket pairs and maybe some KQ and AJ.
SB calls and is a loose aggressive asian that is a losing player from what I can tell.
Others fold and it's 3-way to the flop
AQ3 rainbow with one heart
SB checks
Hero checks
Button checks
Pot = $110
Turn 3
SB checks
Hero bets $50
Button calls
SB folds
River 2
Pot is $200
Button has around $300 behind, maybe a little more
On the flop, I wasn't confident I had much fold equity getting called in two spots with a 12x preflop open size, and this lead me to check the flop. I could see maybe C-betting around 30-40% however, but if I go any bigger I think it begins to bleed money, and I do not think either player has a capped range
On the turn after it checks through, and the SB checks again, I bet in a 45% turn bet to fold out mid pairs, and maybe miscellaneous hands that got sticky preflop(maybe a hand like T9s for example.)
When the button calls, I think he can certainly have some AJ in his range, maybe some AK/QQ that slow played the flop as this is a thing that happens in live games. I do think most AK would have bet the flop, but I would account for him having maybe 1 or 2 combos in his check back range on a dry board. Also think he could have like 1 combo of QQ, however this may not be 100% accurate. AQ I would guess exists at a low percentage as well. Think ATs is likely in his range, maybe some A9s, but think it begins to get dicey once we drop below ATs. Think it's pretty common for players to flat at least half of the AJo and KQo combos tho in the games I play in
I considered betting the river 75%-100% pot, but opted on a check because I wasn't confident villain would fold Qx 100% of the time after I checked the flop, which is a pretty big issue.
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I broke down his range in word, and it seems very close on the river after the line I have taken. It seems very close and will vary a little bit depending on the actual range he shows up with, but I think we can bet like $150-$180 on the river if we expect Qx to fold close to 100%.
In the hand I checked and villain showed down KQo. If he is flatting all of these preflop, theres a good chance AJo will be bet at the very least a higher frequency than KQo(obv), and given how close my calculations seem to indicate this is, I think him having potentially extra KQo combos in his range would make betting the river here a bit better than just check/giving up. If we bet close to pot I expect most people to fold Qx, although its possible we do get heroed occasionally, and against that type of villain we would just want to check riv.
Flop ($126) AxQh3x
SB x, Co hero X, Btn X.
Turn ($126) AxQh3x-3x
SB X, Co $50, BTN call, SB fold
River ($226) AxQh3x-3x-2x
CO ($covers) KhJh ??
BTN ($300)
Preflop I think the sizing is fine, but with $5 btn straddle, its not a 12x raise, but a 7x raise, so that is one thing to consider. Playing effectively 80bb deep. I think btn's most likely range here is going to be something like QJs, KQs, A10s, A9s, AJo. I expect most of the AQ, AK, QQ, etc to bet the flop. I also think 3 way you should be betting the flop with range advantage for 30% pot or so. Just throw out another $40. After this bet I would likely give up on the AQ33 board because now they are going to be sticky with any Ax as they only lose to AQ and AK in their minds. They are likely calling down to see though. If turn did not pair the board i.e AQ37 I would be more inclined to double barrel target Qx and weaker Ax to fold, but I am not really going for triple barrel as pot will be too big by the river to do anything effective.
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