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If we should bet or check in position

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

If we should bet or check in position

Hi guys

I have been working on my game a lot recently and looking into the math behind some of the theory. Really interesting stuff. While I realise I do not need to understand everything to beat lower limits, its somthing I enjoy doing.

I was looking at hand earlier and I was trying to decide if I should be betting it, or checking it and giving up. I was trying to figure out the maths behind how much of my range I need to bet, in order to not lose money immediately. So how do we construct this range?

I need to construct a range of value and bluffs but I am not sure how to do this. The hand in question was:

Jd8h on a Th2h2c flop.

I think we must start by looking at my opening range from the button, then deciding how much of that I am betting for value. The question is how much do I need to bet in order to not be exploited?

Am I right in thinking, we must make the opponent indifferent to calling? In that if we bet 0.75 pot, if the opponent folds more than 58% of the time, we immediately profit. So we must look at constructing a range of 58% of our preflop opening range?

Im almost certain this can be solved if we plug in some assumptions, but Im just a little lost at this point.


Cheers

3 Comments

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JoINrbs 10 years, 5 months ago

Hey, not going to work through the entire thing since it'd take the fun out of it for you but my method would be to look at how the caller responds to three bets since that informs us what hands can be in our value range. So if you're betting 0.75p you want to work out how called defends around 60% of his range on the flop, turn, and river to three streets of those bets. Once you've done that you can look at which hands do best in which lines in CREV. My guess is that with only J-high but still having an over, 3flush and 3straight we have an easy flop bet and that this is probably even one of the combos we keep betting on most turns and rivers since we block some tens.

JoINrbs 10 years, 5 months ago

three bets like bet bet bet on this flop, not 3bets like reraising preflop. For example on the flop if he wants to defend 60% of the time vs a .75p bet he probably calls all his pairs and a bunch of ace highs and flush draws and some bdfds and doesn't raise much would be my guess, although you could look at how it might work if he had a balanced raising range as well (he'll have a weaker calling range but he'll get to use his strong hands to continue with some weak hands because he gets to have x/r bluffs).

He probably doesn't really want to defend 60% vs a .75p bet because he only has to make betting equivalent to checking with your worst hand, and checking has some value for you here even if you have 65o or something just off what you make by spiking a 5 or 6. So using a 50% flop defense and then starting to have him defend 60% to your .75p bets on later streets could be better.

Once you've done that it'll let you see which hands are bettable for how many streets of value out of the hands in your range and you can go about trying to balance some ranges for lines like bbb, bxb, bxx, and if you want to go really deep you can start to think about what he'll do if you check back and that'll let you start designing ranges for xbb, xxb, etc.

It's a really complex situation because the turn and river are still unknown, so you won't be able to definitively say much, but you'll be able to approximate things like what is the lowest hand you can go for 3 streets of value on two bricks or whatever.

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