Whenever I'm trying to write out decision trees to find profitable lines I tend to get caught up with lines that based on my math seem profitable but in reality seem like they can't be. For example: I consider my BTN opening range at 3x getting flatted by the big blind. So I compare my range to BBs range and consider whether or not a cbet would be profitable on different board textures and what I always find is that when BB folds to my cbet at x% added to the times that BB calls (or raises) and I win at y%, I am always priced in for a cbet bluff with my entire range. When I carry this on I tend to find that the same holds true for the rest of the streets and I'm left with the understanding that I should be tight preflop and 3 barrel every hand that I open. But that can't be right.

When I'm considering this, should I be grouping my value cbets and bluff cbets differently? I just compare my entire betting range (which, based on the math that I'm pretty sure is incorrect, is 100% of my opening range) to BBs entire range and find his folding percentage. Is there a glaring mistake that I'm making here or is this stuff that I just need to continue working on to find simple mistakes.