Dealing with overconfidence in regards to bankroll management
Posted by Mushmellow
Posted by
Mushmellow
posted in
Low Stakes
Dealing with overconfidence in regards to bankroll management
Recently moved up to 50NL heads up after bumhunting 25NL heads up for about 50k hands. 10k hands into 50NL, I'm on a pretty big heater and have already won 30+ buy ins at this stake. Considering moving up to 100NL heads up since I have about ~30 BI at this stake. I know taking shots like these is risky, but I also know I'm a huge knit when it comes to bankroll management and it might be plus EV for me to loosen up especially when moving through the lowers stakes where rake is huge (12bb/100 at 25NL, 9bb/100 at 50NL, 6bb/100 at 100NL, 3bb/100 at 200NL <- seems like 200NL+ is where I want to be where rake is going to a LOT less than then my current stakes).
When I was playing 25NL before moving up to 50NL I decided that I would move up to 50NL after successfully dealing with a downswing at 25NL. Ended up moving up anyways since I kept playing without having the opportunity of dealing with a downswing. Now I'm faced with the same situation again transitioning from 50NL to 100NL.
My biggest worry is that I'm potentially overestimating my edge, and don't want to put myself in spots where I'm a dog. Then again, I primarily bumhunt against weak competition so this might not be too big of an issue. Fish at 50NL ~ fish at 100NL?
Thoughts?
-Mush
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There are weaker opponents on all limits, rail the $500 ZOOM on Pokerstars, every now and again a completely recreational player sits down.
Its important to be challenged. Some pressure keeps you motivated and focused. Plus it keeps things interesting.
Instead of only having 100NL tables, maybe have one or two. then one or two 50NL. that way it isnt such a huge jump.
Definitely move up ASAP
I see. Right now I wait 2 tables 25NL, 1 table 50NL, and 1 table 50NL fast. I guess I could add 1 table 100NL, and 1 table 100NL fast and only play the weakest of players. Thanks for your advice Daz! I'm just too risk averse haha :)
As long as you are comfortable moving back down I see no problem taking say a 5 buy in shot at 100nl. I agree with daz that fish are fish, they might get more aggressive higher up but they are still losing money.
Just ask yourself what would isildur1 do?
ok, maybe don't do that. Good luck!
Isildur1 would throw the entire balance on $25/$50. Not recommended!
I don't even rail those games because on my network if you accidentally click on an open seat it sits you and buys you in full. Wouldn't want to have to get AA in the big blind and check fold the whole way down and lose a whole buy in at my current stake...
:P
Move up ASAP, don't waste your time at lower limits when you are rolled to play higher and even make more net. Must be feel good if you continue making another 30+ bi at nl100
Technically not rolled for 100NL yet though. For heads up, you want around 50 buy ins since there is more variance than full ring etc. Then again, the edges are a lot bigger (at least they should be a lot bigger if you are doing it right) which decreases ROR.
lol. :)
set a minimum bankroll threshold that if your bankroll dips below that then disconitnue playing 100NL
There is something i want to add that is important. treat the shots/losses you take as an investment in learning. eventually you will encounter tougher opposition and will struggle. just write down the tough spots and continually improve. find out where they put pressure on you and put pressure on others in the same way
Keeping a journal after sessions is a great investment. A hidden gem for getting a huge mental game edge.
Thanks for all the input guys! I think I'm going to set my threshold at 50 buy ins for the stake below my shot. In this case 50 buy ins of 50NL. This way, even if the shot goes bad, I still have a very solid roll for playing 50NL and overrolled for 25NL with 100+ BI.
Mush, a 30 buy in roll is not enough if you want to consistently keep playing.
If you do want to get a taste of 100NL, just sit at one table. You don't need to move up on every table.
If you feel you have an edge, you can improve by playing regs from the same stakes. Most of them won't play fellow regs, but there enough who do.
Btw, me giving bankroll management advice is like Sarah Palin giving astronauts at NASA advice on how to operate their spacecraft.
The reason I would want to move up on every table is that it increases the net in which I catch fish. I would still be playing my normal tables (2 tables 50NL and 1 table 25NL) but I would also sit 2 tables of 100NL. On my network, you can only wait on 2 tables per stake (1 fast table, 1 regular speed table).
In regards to playing regs, at 50NL its actually a losing proposition. With a rake of almost 10bb/100 its hard to get that big of an edge against most TAGs unless you tilt them or you spot a pretty large leak against them. It's actually lower variance just to play huge whales at 100NL and quit everyone else that sits. Most of the time I'm quitting people anyways (this is how I get my edge to win, by only playing players I'm better than).
Btw, me giving bankroll management advice is like Sarah Palin giving astronauts at NASA advice on how to operate their spacecraft.
lol! you can't be serious tho...
Most definitely, go for it.
+1 to okaygo
Take a 5-10bi shot if you`re prepared to move down if you don`t make it.
You got to take risks and chances Mush either way you won't regret em it's these things that make you a better player! move out of your comfort zone asap!
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