Dealing with overconfidence in regards to bankroll management
Posted by Mushmellow
Posted by Mushmellow posted in Low Stakes
Dealing with overconfidence in regards to bankroll management
Recently moved up to 50NL heads up after bumhunting 25NL heads up for about 50k hands. 10k hands into 50NL, I'm on a pretty big heater and have already won 30+ buy ins at this stake. Considering moving up to 100NL heads up since I have about ~30 BI at this stake. I know taking shots like these is risky, but I also know I'm a huge knit when it comes to bankroll management and it might be plus EV for me to loosen up especially when moving through the lowers stakes where rake is huge (12bb/100 at 25NL, 9bb/100 at 50NL, 6bb/100 at 100NL, 3bb/100 at 200NL <- seems like 200NL+ is where I want to be where rake is going to a LOT less than then my current stakes).
When I was playing 25NL before moving up to 50NL I decided that I would move up to 50NL after successfully dealing with a downswing at 25NL. Ended up moving up anyways since I kept playing without having the opportunity of dealing with a downswing. Now I'm faced with the same situation again transitioning from 50NL to 100NL.
My biggest worry is that I'm potentially overestimating my edge, and don't want to put myself in spots where I'm a dog. Then again, I primarily bumhunt against weak competition so this might not be too big of an issue. Fish at 50NL ~ fish at 100NL?
Thoughts?
-Mush
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