Common spot 3BP flop decision
Posted by Kruzer20
Posted by
Kruzer20
posted in
Low Stakes
Common spot 3BP flop decision
SB: $28.25
BB: $28.50 (Hero)
UTG: $26.49
MP: $25.00
CO: $17.76
BB lost and shows two pair, Aces and Kings.
BN wins $55.10
Rake is $2.00
Heya could someone explain plz the thought process between shoving and calling flop.Ive got 43% eq vs natural bluffs and 50% if he is creative with BD hearts.The thing is im OOP and players on this pool might X back turn on a brick to realize free equity if i call flop.I know that basic stuff if i have club blockers im more inclined to call only.But my question is towards can we shove 43% equity on the flop how does this change with SPR.Im guessing if we call flop,the turn would be 24$ with 16$ behind which is around 28% equity to call but how are equitys corelated between flop and turn based on SPR is there some formula that makes our 43% flop equity shove +EV because of how theres going to be low SPR on turn?(assuming he is never going to fold to our shove). Ive asked this multiple times but never gotten more explained answer so if you could help me out.
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Yeah so 43% will be enough probably with this SPR, but imagine you have a million behind then ofc it's not enough equity
Simple math 200bb pot 43% =86bb thats your share, you have invested already 28bb invested and 72bb at risk which is less than the 86bb
Shove is better than call because otherwise villain realises too much equity by checking back the turn with flushdraws.
I think the important note here is that villain raised a set IP at a short SPR when you bet half pot which is quite relevant because it means villain is super capped in future when they flat your CB. Maybe they're not doing this at 100% frequency with this hand but the raising range is meant to be primarily made up of hands that want protection, not nutted hands that are fairly immune to bad runouts because with such a short spr they just stack off anyway.
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