Calculation mistakes hunt
Posted by guljo
Posted by
guljo
posted in
Low Stakes
Calculation mistakes hunt
SB: SB: $10
BB: BB: $3.07
BN: Hero: $16.26
BB: BB: $3.07
BN: Hero: $16.26
Playing on 50bb max table.
SB is 47/24, Fold Sb vs Steal: 40%, Fold to flop CB: 43%, Turn cr: 8% Overall agg:1,3 Sample: 500 hands
I am working on game analysis and math so I would appreciate if you can correct my mistakes.
SB is 47/24, Fold Sb vs Steal: 40%, Fold to flop CB: 43%, Turn cr: 8% Overall agg:1,3 Sample: 500 hands
I am working on game analysis and math so I would appreciate if you can correct my mistakes.
Preflop
($0.30)
(3 Players)
Hero was dealt
4
K
Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.20
Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.20
Flop
($1.20)
J
A
J
(3 Players)
SB checks,
BB checks,
Hero bets $0.72,
SB calls $0.72,
BB folds
Turn
($2.64)
7
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $1.58,
SB raises to $3.69,
Hero calls $2.11
His range is super wide here, so I want his gut shots, underpairs, worse flush draws to pay. I don't expect him to fold A ever.
When he CR I think his range is practically trips+. I expect it to be something like (JJ, 77, AdAh (1 combo, most of them he raises PF), AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, J7s, QcTc, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, J7o). I removed some lover J and put them to donk/check call. Total 48 combos. Lets assume he bets or calls AI on any river with all his holdings, I think this is reasonable assumption for player like this.
So here comes the math part:
80% we call 2,11$, and fold the river unimproved
20% we do hit and get called all the time, but we don't win always as he has 4 of a kind and full house some of the time. Mostly we have 65% to win when club hits but as some clubs make full houses I reduced this number to 60%. So 60% we win full pot of 20,40$ and 40% we loose 7,30$ (2,11 OTT and 5,19$ OTR)
Ev when flush hits:
0,60(20,40) + 0,40(-7,30)=
=12,24 - 2,92 = 9,32
Total Ev when calling this CR to hit flush:
0,80(-2,11) + 0,2(9,32)=
-1,69 + 1,86 = 0,17
After all the assumptions I have made the math has showed that this play is slightly +EV.
When he CR I think his range is practically trips+. I expect it to be something like (JJ, 77, AdAh (1 combo, most of them he raises PF), AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, J7s, QcTc, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, J7o). I removed some lover J and put them to donk/check call. Total 48 combos. Lets assume he bets or calls AI on any river with all his holdings, I think this is reasonable assumption for player like this.
So here comes the math part:
80% we call 2,11$, and fold the river unimproved
20% we do hit and get called all the time, but we don't win always as he has 4 of a kind and full house some of the time. Mostly we have 65% to win when club hits but as some clubs make full houses I reduced this number to 60%. So 60% we win full pot of 20,40$ and 40% we loose 7,30$ (2,11 OTT and 5,19$ OTR)
Ev when flush hits:
0,60(20,40) + 0,40(-7,30)=
=12,24 - 2,92 = 9,32
Total Ev when calling this CR to hit flush:
0,80(-2,11) + 0,2(9,32)=
-1,69 + 1,86 = 0,17
After all the assumptions I have made the math has showed that this play is slightly +EV.
River
($10.02)
8
(2 Players)
SB bets $5.19, and is all in,
Hero folds
Final Pot
SB
wins $9.52
Please review my thinking process and calculations and correct my mistakes.
Thanks!
Loading 3 Comments...
There is an error where you are calculating the equity when the flush hits and you win. You dont win $20.40, you actually only win $13.10. The final pot is $20.40 but you have to take away the $2.11 you are calling on the turn, and the $5.19 you put in on the river, you dont get to include that in your profits.
Where does the 65% come from (that you reduced to 60% due to not all outs being clean)?
Thanks for pointing that out!
So the correct calculation would be:
EV when flush hits:
0,60(13,10) + 0,40(-7,30)=
=7,86 - 2,92 =4,94
Total EV:
0,8(-2,11) + 0,2(4,94)=
=-1,69 + 1 =-0,69
Which shows us the clearly negative play.
About the 65%. I was inserting different clubs for the river to equilab. 2,3,5,6,8c gives us ~65% equity against his range. When all other clubs except 7 hit we have ~50% equity. Calculating it now I see that this was a mistake as well, correct number would be 53%. Clearly we should fold the river when the 7c hits. So we need a new formula. When we remove 7c from good outs our equity is 59%.
So the formula should be:
EV when good flush hits:
0,59(13,10) + 0,41(-7,30)=
=7,73 - 2,98 = 4,75
Total EV:
0,82(-2,11) + 0,18(4,75) =
= -1,72 + 0,85 = -0,87
Showing even worse play.
What do you think?
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