Playing on 50bb max table.

SB is 47/24, Fold Sb vs Steal: 40%, Fold to flop CB: 43%, Turn cr: 8% Overall agg:1,3 Sample: 500 hands

I am working on game analysis and math so I would appreciate if you can correct my mistakes.

His range is super wide here, so I want his gut shots, underpairs, worse flush draws to pay. I don't expect him to fold A ever.

When he CR I think his range is practically trips+. I expect it to be something like (JJ, 77, AdAh (1 combo, most of them he raises PF), AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, J7s, QcTc, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, J7o). I removed some lover J and put them to donk/check call. Total 48 combos. Lets assume he bets or calls AI on any river with all his holdings, I think this is reasonable assumption for player like this.

So here comes the math part:
80% we call 2,11$, and fold the river unimproved
20% we do hit and get called all the time, but we don't win always as he has 4 of a kind and full house some of the time. Mostly we have 65% to win when club hits but as some clubs make full houses I reduced this number to 60%. So 60% we win full pot of 20,40$ and 40% we loose 7,30$ (2,11 OTT and 5,19$ OTR)

Ev when flush hits:
0,60(20,40) + 0,40(-7,30)=
=12,24 - 2,92 = 9,32

Total Ev when calling this CR to hit flush:

0,80(-2,11) + 0,2(9,32)=
-1,69 + 1,86 = 0,17

After all the assumptions I have made the math has showed that this play is slightly +EV.