This is probably a very trivial spot. The last post I made and the responses I've got have encouraged me however to be way more analytical with my game and this is a start for me, so any help is highly appreciated. So far I have always gotten along well with just a lot of rule of thumb and being a "feel player" playing mostly tournaments, but I would love to expand my game and improve on my hand reading skills and my math.

So given that villain cold overcalled my 3bet pre, I am assuming his raising range here to be overpairs, sets, 44 for a Pair + OESD and A hi flush draws (and potentially QsJs, although that would be a very loose call pre, so I'm gonna öeave it out here). I would assume that he is going to abandon his weaker overpairs to my shove. So I would have his calling range as 22-66,JJ+,AsTs,AsJs,AsQs. Against this range my hand has ~39% equity. So I am already getting a pretty good price on my shove. So now my question is, how often villain needs to fold to make this shove profitable.

For the calculation I took a formula off this 2+2 thread http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/doing-equity-calculation-calculating-ev-turn-semi-bluff-300081/ . I can't claim to understand 100% why this formula is correct, but this kind of understanding has to develop over time for me, as this is far from my strong point. As for now I am just happy to have found a formula. :)

So what I came up with is this:

EV(shove) = 31.75x + (1-x)*(-48.05 + 0.39*116.85)
EV(shove) = x(31.75 + 2.4785) + (-2.4785)
EV(shove) = 34.2285x - 2.4785

34.2285x = 2.4785

X ~ 7.2%

So if villain folds ~7.2% of the time this shove is profitable. This would be easily achieved if he just lets go of a portion of his overpairs.

So please criticize away here and let me know where I am flawed as I am really trying to learn an aspect of the game here, that I used to ignore.