50 NL turned AA into bluff on the river

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50 NL turned AA into bluff on the river

Cake Poker, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG: $124.57 (249.1 bb)
MP: $50.55 (101.1 bb)
CO: $78.43 (156.9 bb)
BTN: $48 (96 bb)
Hero (SB): $72.48 (145 bb)
BB: $36.93 (73.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah As
UTG raises to $1.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $6, BB folds, UTG calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.50) 8d 3c 8c (2 players)
Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7

Turn: ($26.50) Tc (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($26.50) Kc (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $15, Hero raises to $59.48,

UTG is 26/18 over 776 hands 40% fold to 3b
We have a decent amount of history and we 3b/4b each other more than any other player at our tables

I'm definitely seen as a TAG overall probably with something like 20/18 and 7% 3b but again that is different vs this specific opponent. He also loves to float flops IP vs me which as led me to increase my 2barr frequency which in most cases gets a fold from him.

On the flop I would have preferred something closer to 8.50 then my 7 but at the time decided on 7 since the board was so dry.

Turn I didn't bet because I felt as though I get a lot of folds as it should appear as very strong and the hands that he will call the turn with I felt he'd also bet when I check. My plan was the x/shove the turn since it can look really bluffy and I could get called by several worse pairs.

On the river I think that betting is out of the question. I also hate x/calling here since I can't see him turning pairs into bluffs or getting to the river with complete air which leaves x/shoving and x/folding. The only hands that I could see having the Ac are AcKx and AcQx. I can't imagine him flatting UTG w AcJx or worse although slightly possible since we are a bit deeper. Its probably a stretch to believe that I could get him to fold the Ac but I don't think that it is impossible since people rarely x/shove on the river as a bluff in these games and my image postflop is solid even vs this guy. Because of his super narrow b/calling range I hate folding. Thoughts?

7 Comments

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James Hudson 12 years, 2 months ago
I'd rather just bet the turn with your hand because it's somewhat of a disaster when the turn gets checked through and you end up with this kind of river scenario.
Michael Schlegel 12 years, 2 months ago
I see how that has a lot of merit and might be the better line, and I usually would bet the turn here just decided to play it differently vs this particular player.

Since I didn't though could you also comment on the river as played?
brodyz 12 years, 2 months ago
youre repping absoloutely nothing when you x/r the river. Also youre relying on villian being capable of valuebetting AxQc, He really has no other Qc combos and has many more Ac combos in his range which he is never folding considering your line is so fos
Michael Schlegel 12 years, 2 months ago
Sure my value range is KK and possibly TT, but even though it is incredibly narrow my perceived bluffing range should almost be nonexistent. Also besides AcKx, AcQx, and mayyybe AcJx what other Ac combos are there? And would you rather x/c or x/f here?

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