[25NLZ] Out of line turn bet vs capped range
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
posted in
Low Stakes
[25NLZ] Out of line turn bet vs capped range
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $35.51
SB: $43.57
BB: $78.90
UTG: $73.92
MP: $17.64
CO: $56.92 (Hero)
SB: $43.57
BB: $78.90
UTG: $73.92
MP: $17.64
CO: $56.92 (Hero)
Villain is an unknown reg, pretty decent things seen from him so far.
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is CO with
A
T
, , , , ,
Flop
($5.75)
7
9
3
,
1st decision I'm not sure at all: we're pretty deep, is floating with my backdoors here a mistake IP versus this size?
Turn
($11.25)
7
9
3
3
, ,
So here's where I get out of line: my thought process here is that I have 77, 99, A3s (Not sure about this one), and his range is capped from 98S,TT-QQ, rarely AA or KK, and AK. That's why I decided to bet the turn blocking Aces in order to overbet any brick river. I expect him to fold AK on theturn, and to fold his 98s,TT,JJ,QQ, maybe KK. Is that wrong? would you also overbluff those spots against regulars? My guess was that they would be too tight in 200bb pots facing aggression.
River
($25.45)
7
9
3
3
4
, ,
I guess if villain calls KK+ here, overbluffing this spot is a disaster
Final Pot
SB
wins and shows two pair, Kings and Threes.
CO lost and shows a pair of Threes.
SB wins $84.54
Rake is $2.85
CO lost and shows a pair of Threes.
SB wins $84.54
Rake is $2.85
So here is Equity distribution on the turn after my bet with a somewhat theorically correct range, pretty clear that we're in for the overbet river versus a bluffcatching range.
And here's river equity distribution.
Loading 6 Comments...
You rep so narrow with this line that I don't think villains will fold overpairs on this runout, especially on the 4 river. Also I don't think the range you've constructed for him is completely correct as many people 3bet a linear range in this spot so he can have 77 and 99 (maybe even A3 sometimes) so his range isn't capped.
I'd probably check this hand back on the turn and expect him to play quite honestly on the river.
Yep he has 99 but would expect him to either x/raise or just barrel turn. He has around 7% overall 3bet so very few chances his range include 77. And again, think he would either barrel or x/raise turn.
But anyway, I think overall you're right on the fact that this play is a spew. Are you ok with the flop call? would you call against 1/2 if we were shorter stacks?
Thx :)
Is that 7% 3bet overall or just from the SB? Unless you have a big enough sample it's reasonable to include it in his 3betting range as people tend to 3bet wider in later positions than mp/co. And whilst he might X/r, X/c is pretty reasonable for him if he has reads that you are aggressive in these spots.
Flop call looks fine, you have a lot of backdoors. Would still call Vs 1/2 pot Vs 100bb, any shorter than that I think it's quite marginal.
I have the stat of his blinds 3bet versus btn in game which is around 11% so wouldn't think he has under 88 here. But anyway, thanks for this advice, think you're right in this one :)
this one wants to showdown and many other Ahigh too, range is so narrow that we have enough bluffs from KQs,JTs, T8s, some QTs and 65 if we call it pre.
What Jeff_ said + you know, it's nl25, hard to make people fold strong hands.
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