[25NLZ] Out of line turn bet vs capped range

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

[25NLZ] Out of line turn bet vs capped range

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $35.51
SB: $43.57
BB: $78.90
UTG: $73.92
MP: $17.64
CO: $56.92 (Hero)
Villain is an unknown reg, pretty decent things seen from him so far.
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is CO with A T
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.67, BN folds, SB raises to $2.75, BB folds, Hero calls $2.08
Flop ($5.75) 7 9 3
SB bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75
1st decision I'm not sure at all: we're pretty deep, is floating with my backdoors here a mistake IP versus this size?
Turn ($11.25) 7 9 3 3
SB checks, Hero bets $7.10, SB calls $7.10
So here's where I get out of line: my thought process here is that I have 77, 99, A3s (Not sure about this one), and his range is capped from 98S,TT-QQ, rarely AA or KK, and AK. That's why I decided to bet the turn blocking Aces in order to overbet any brick river. I expect him to fold AK on theturn, and to fold his 98s,TT,JJ,QQ, maybe KK. Is that wrong? would you also overbluff those spots against regulars? My guess was that they would be too tight in 200bb pots facing aggression.
River ($25.45) 7 9 3 3 4
SB checks, Hero bets $44.32 and is all in, SB calls $30.97 and is all in
I guess if villain calls KK+ here, overbluffing this spot is a disaster
Final Pot SB wins and shows two pair, Kings and Threes.
CO lost and shows a pair of Threes.
SB wins $84.54
Rake is $2.85

So here is Equity distribution on the turn after my bet with a somewhat theorically correct range, pretty clear that we're in for the overbet river versus a bluffcatching range.

And here's river equity distribution.

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