$2/$3 Live NLHE - Bad at Math - Help!
Posted by alligatorblood
Posted by
alligatorblood
posted in
Mid Stakes
$2/$3 Live NLHE - Bad at Math - Help!
Hello RIO Fam,
Had an interesting spot yesterday that I lost but felt ok with my play.
Hero in CO with [6s] [5s], Villain in MP3. Two limpers then Villain raises to $20. I call and so does one other player. I have $450 and Villain has $320 at start of hand.
Flop [6d] [3s] [2d] - Checks to the Villain who bets $25. This Villain has generally just been a calling station and not shown much aggression. Check backs most hands but not all that he whiffs. I flat other player folds.
Turn [6d] [3s] [2d] [8s] - Check to the Villain who bets $50. I have $355 remaining while Villain has $225. I am now definitely putting him on a sizable over pair or possibly still nutted diamond draw [Ad] [Kd] etc. I feel like if he has TT-JJ-QQ or the nutted diamonds I can get him to lay down on a turn shove. If he has AA he calls most of the time and Kings most likely the same. I shoved and he thought for about 2 minutes then called. Villain was in for $95, pot was $438($213+my shove for his remaining $225).
I am newly back to grinding poker and honestly never really studied before. I have around 35% versus any over pairs and was very sure he was in that ball park. Is my shove correct majority of the times? What is the actual math in going into figuring out spots like these. I am terrible at math, sorry. Trying to learn more and more each day.
Oh yeah for those who were interested in the end result. River [6d] [3s] [2d] [8s] [8c] - He tabled [Ac] [As]. Not sure why he took a full 2 minutes to call while holding the [As].
Loading 3 Comments...
pf could've gone both ways call or fold. I think I'd lean towards folding unless I was otb. Hand is a bit weak and awkward relative positioning imo.
Flop flat is fine.
Turn is interesting as the 8s does not really improve our range. I think I'd prefer the pot sized shove here with strong draws with no show down value. With this hand I would imagine it plays better as a call turn and playing a river with the small SDV in position.
PF is always at least a call from me with some 3bets.
Trying to get people to fold aces at low limits is pretty hard. I think its a easy call and jam river when you hit 2p, trips or the flush.
Just calling on the turn...he's strongly repping an overpair so you have little to no fold equity given SPR and that he's a calling station as stated. Everything was fine IMO except raising turn (not crazy about PF call with V's stack size but ok if he plays his hands face-up). Just flat and fold on non-improved rivers.
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