Hello RIO Fam,

Had an interesting spot yesterday that I lost but felt ok with my play.

Hero in CO with [6s] [5s], Villain in MP3. Two limpers then Villain raises to $20. I call and so does one other player. I have $450 and Villain has $320 at start of hand.

Flop [6d] [3s] [2d] - Checks to the Villain who bets $25. This Villain has generally just been a calling station and not shown much aggression. Check backs most hands but not all that he whiffs. I flat other player folds.

Turn [6d] [3s] [2d] [8s] - Check to the Villain who bets $50. I have $355 remaining while Villain has $225. I am now definitely putting him on a sizable over pair or possibly still nutted diamond draw [Ad] [Kd] etc. I feel like if he has TT-JJ-QQ or the nutted diamonds I can get him to lay down on a turn shove. If he has AA he calls most of the time and Kings most likely the same. I shoved and he thought for about 2 minutes then called. Villain was in for $95, pot was $438($213+my shove for his remaining $225).

I am newly back to grinding poker and honestly never really studied before. I have around 35% versus any over pairs and was very sure he was in that ball park. Is my shove correct majority of the times? What is the actual math in going into figuring out spots like these. I am terrible at math, sorry. Trying to learn more and more each day.

Oh yeah for those who were interested in the end result. River [6d] [3s] [2d] [8s] [8c] - He tabled [Ac] [As]. Not sure why he took a full 2 minutes to call while holding the [As].