17bb maniac shoving almost any two, math calculations
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by MatoStar posted in Low Stakes
17bb maniac shoving almost any two, math calculations
MP: $55.28
UTG+1: $41.33
MP+1: $52.14
MP+2: $113.95
CO: $92.03
BN: $68.07 (Hero)
SB: $153.10
BB: $45.75
Okay so, in this case, lets pretend we are on the btn and everyone folded to us. Vs the top 70% range, our hand has got 57,29% equity. So we are risking 17,26 to win 17,26*2+1,5= 36,02. Incl. the pokerstars 5,5% rake, its actually 34,0389. Given our 57,29% equity, our expected winnings are 19,5 - 17,26 = 2,24ev.
For a simplification, I will use only scenario when we get raised and we will obviously fold (below I will calculate also the option of jamming).
Okay, so lets say, we get jammed by 99+, AJs+, AQo+ = 5,43% (its a bit wider, because I skip the option of getting called). Due to our blocker effect its actually 60/1225 = 4,9%. Since we have 2 players behind, the probability of getting called by that range is (1165/122560/1225)2+ (60/122560/1225) = 0,0956 = 9,56%
To summarize: in 90,44%, we win 2.24 = 2.03
in 9,56% we lose 17,56 = 1.68
Thats +0.35ev
So it seems that calling is better than folding!
*Explanation for used formula: 1165/1225 * 60/1225 is the probability that SB jams and BB folds. Then I multiplied it by 2, because I wanna calculate it also vice versa (that SB folds and BB jams). Then the last case which isnt included is that both of them jams 60/1225 * 60/1225 (then the BB range would be even much tighter)
If we decides to go AI, I expect a calling range QQ+,AK. In 4.3% cases we get called by (one of two players). Neglecting scenario when both of them calls for a simplification. Our equity vs that range is 24,82%. That says in 4.3% cases we will be in 2 pots. In HU its (100-17.26) * 2. So in the pot of 165.48 * 0.945 (rake factor), our exp.winnings are 38.81 - 82.84 (invested) = -44.03
In a 3way pot 17.26*3 + 0.75 (avg of SB and BB 0.5 and 1bb) = 52.53 * 0.945 (rake) = 49.64. Our equity is 19,43%. So our EW are 49.64 * 0.1943 = 9.645
So our total EW in case we got called is 38.81+9.645 = 48.455 - 100 (invested) = -51.545 this happens in 4.3% cases. So its -51.545 * 0.043 = -2,216
Compared to our winnings: in 95.7%, we will be in the pot of 17.26 * 2+1.5 = 36.02 with 57.29% equity: 36.02 * 0.5729 * 0.945 = 19,5 - 17,26 = 2,24
this happens in 95.7% cases, so its 2,24 * 0,957 = 2,14368
As you can see 2,216>2,14368. Even if these calculations were a bit optimistic (I neglected the case where both SB and BB would call or would call down lighter). I believe that assigned calling range QQ+,AK isnt tighter in reality, moreover, I would say that there is higher chance that this range might be even more looser in general.
Another disadvantage is that, we are basically attracting variance which may cause us even more money in a long-term.
Summary:
- The worst option is to jam. (might become the best if we have nits sitting on blinds).
- Neutral 0ev option is to just fold - that actually what I did.
- Last, the most profitable option is to just call with intention to fold to jam. I think I have assigned pretty loose jamming ranges and it still worked (and I am also neglecting the fact that we might only get called by certain hands where we wont immediately lose 17,26bb, cause we will have some equity in the pot.. but yeah, also reverse implied odds will play a role, so we should be really careful, esp. when we hit an A:)
Note: this scenario is calculated for 100bb effective.
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