16nl: Thin b/f or x/c vs rec OTR

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

16nl: Thin b/f or x/c vs rec OTR

Blinds: $0.08/$0.16 (7 Players) BN: $16.00
SB: $28.22
BB: $34.25 (Hero)
UTG: $33.96
UTG+1: $19.67
MP: $14.12
CO: $16.00
V: 43/8 (281)
Preflop ($0.24) Hero is BB with A A
UTG calls $0.16, 5 folds, Hero raises to $0.96, UTG calls $0.80
could iso even bigger like 7-8bb, given our stack size
Flop ($2.00) 4 9 6
Hero bets $1.60, UTG calls $1.60
After being told multiple times not to slowplay against recs and just go b/b/b 2/3+, so maximizing my value. Planning to check on spade turns and probably 7,8 and T
Turn ($5.20) 4 9 6 T
Hero bets $3.28, UTG calls $3.28
In game I was thinking about checking, but I see more value in bet/folding. Even if this card looks like it helps his range, he still doesnt have that many combos which beat us (Assuming that T9o fold pre given his vpip and our iso). Getting value from hands like 97s,98s,77,88,67s,68s,ATo and some TsXs or 6sXs hands and all flush draws as well.
If I would check, he might easily check back with hands like pair+gutter which I really dont like.
I wanted to use such a sizing on which he would still call 67s,77 type of hands.
River ($11.76) 4 9 6 T 9
Hero bets $2.56, UTG folds
In game I had in mind that fishes are in general pretty passive so, I didnt expect him to be turning into a bluff his busted FDs somewhat often enough and also that he might check back his Tx hands.
After quick check in equilab, he has roughly 12 combos which beat us, 26 two pair combos (16 Tx) and 16 FDs.
Final Pot BB wins $11.23
Rake is $0.53

Quick calculations: we lose the same amount of value against his trips+. Lets assume that we would bet the same amount as he would, lets say 1/2. So when we bet, we gain 1/2pot more from Tx hands than if we would check. On the other hand we are gaining 1/2 more from FDs if we go check/call.
It tells us that he needs to be betting more FDs combos/bluffs than calling Tx (if the bet sizing would be the same). In this scenario I believe that we have therefore a bet/fold (16Tx vs 16FDs). Probably using a bigger sizing than I used, because of increased possibility facing a raise from a bluff. Tx should be calling even against a 1/2bet.

Am I right? Or am I just missing something?

I probably should be operating with a range of numbers not with the specific ones, since my confidence interval is pretty low,

Side note: I am neglecting the factor of protection my checking range, but vs a rec player I do believe it doesnt play a role.

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