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100NL do these bet sizes make sense?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

100NL do these bet sizes make sense?

BN: $199.76 (Hero)
SB: $166.69
BB: $98.50
UTG: $112.52
HJ: $166.05
CO: $122.28
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J 9
UTG raises to $2.50, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero calls $2.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($6.50) 8 5 7 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.55, UTG calls $1.55
SCs/one-gappers are a frequency thing for me, I'm not actually as wide as 100% J9s here. I'll call it quite occasionally but more often if I'd like a pot to go multiway with one of the players in the blinds (note BB <100bb stack ;)).

This is a flop situation which I don't understand at all. I'm still struggling to learn how to play against players with balanced c/f-c/c-c/r frequencies. Here's my GUESS at what I'm meant to do here.

I think I want some sort of range largely intended for protection betting. The board is just way too wet for me to want to let free cards come with my hands like JJ-99 and that creates an incentive for me to have this range and bet somewhat small with it. The point of betting smaller is to lose less to UTG's c/r's. I also wonder if betting smaller makes it harder for him to balance his c/f-c/c-c/r frequencies since when he checked it would have been with a range of hands already intended to go into certain different ranges but a bet this small might change where they want to be which could lead to him doing awkward things like c/c'ing hands which planned to c/f or c/r'ing hands which planned to c/c and when he does this with hands which don't want to do it very much it should hurt his ev.

I think I also want a more standard range intended for value betting and bluffing. While this will look more like a polarized range I probably need to be careful (GTO-wise) to put a few of my nutted hands in my other range as well. While I'll make less value with the nutted hands by getting called I am pretty sure there is an equilibrium where my smaller range has fewer nutted hands so it gets played back at more so the nutted hands in it make more money etc. such that I end up wanting maybe 20% of my nutted hands there and 80% in the bigger range (this is complete guesswork, I can't back that number up mathematically).

I feel like a perfect GTO model would have balanced ranges for every reasonable betsize here and it would make villain's life absolute hell. Like given how hard it is to balance checking ranges and work out how to defend 1-A and work out some hands are best as c/r's imagine how hard it must be if you're completely in the dark on how large the betsize of the IP player is going to be. I know that this will hurt IP immediate strategy on the flop, like there are some betsizes which make more sense than others on the flop, but completely hamstringing OOP's ranges all the time seems like it would make up for flop losses on the turn. Rather than doing that perfectly I wonder if I could just randomize my betsize with this nutted range somewhat.

I also feel like maybe I'm completely wrong though. Would love to hear if there's a standard opinion on this.
Turn ($9.60) 8 5 7 8 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8.61, UTG calls $8.61
I feel like this betsize is possibly bad because OOP can have 98s here. I think after the flop c/c it's really hard for him to have anything better than that though so I like having a polarized range betting quite large in this spot, it's easy for me to create one for myself since I have more nutted hands than him from the flop and then I have 98s too!
River ($26.82) 8 5 7 8 A (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $18.95
River merges our ranges quite a lot because we can be bluffing with aces and OOP can maybe have gotten here with an ace too and the smaller betsize relative to the pot compared to the turn reflects that. Overall though I think we were bluffing with an ace enough that we have enough value hands to support following through with at least the JT J9 T9 bluffs.

Let me know if this stuff seems really bad, I'm still trying to get a good grasp on betsizes and especially IP vs a check from the pfr it seems like there's a TON of room to be creative.

8 Comments

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JoINrbs 10 years, 6 months ago

I guess a simpler way of phrasing my flop point is:

In lines where OOP has a betting range and a c/c c/r c/f range he's already had to make decisions about which hands go into one of his ranges (his betting range) by the time I'm choosing my betsize.

Because of this it must be valuable for my betsize to be unpredictable so that he can't easily decide while constructing his betting range which hands need to go into his c/c c/r and c/f range.

sweet16 10 years, 6 months ago

Pre flop is a fold, reasonable to 3b some % of the times. But it's not a call. As played bet bigger flop if you want to be, and shutdown turn.

JoINrbs 10 years, 6 months ago

Thanks for the response!

Is 98s so much better than 97s that we don't want to consider mixing the two here? I would have some 98s in my calling range and if I'm doing that I'd guess intuitively that it helps me a lot if I also have a little 97s some fraction of the time. I agree that 3bet/fold is better most of the time though and probably just straight-up always better if I have little history against someone.

sweet16 10 years, 6 months ago

Since you 0 dollars invested, you have to make money when calling 97s or J9s for it to be a profitable call. Given positions etc UTG have to be like the biggest fish ever for me to want to call J9s. Look it up in PT / HEM how much money you make when calling here, you make money short term but this is too wide tbh.

sweet16 10 years, 6 months ago

So I saved you a lot of money basically! ;)

Generally you can try out of lot of things, but try doing some research before trying out things. And after you tried out something for a while, filter in HEM and look how you're doing with your new strategy / tactic. Something tells me you haven't done the math at all in this spot, and you are just calling because it's a fun hand or something like that.

GL!

JoINrbs 10 years, 6 months ago

I'm 3betting KK+ AKs, KQo, AJo, A5s, A4s in this spot and calling AKo AQo AQs AJs KQs 0.5 KJs 0.75 QJs 0.5 JTs 0.25 (J9s T9-87s), QQ-99, 0.5 88, 0.25 77. I got that out of videos and a book that's like 18 months old. I don't know a better way to work out preflop ;_;. I appreciate the input though, it's just like, only one point of reference towards me having an ideal strategy.

I was trying to work preflop out by watching videos and just keeping track of what every different person did in different situations but it's problematic when like, someone is doing something because they have a skill edge, or when different people have massively different opinions. I am actually going to go make a video request for a series showcasing some different balanced preflop strategies right now because it would just be sooooo amazing for me to be able to get that information from somewhere, it takes a really long time for me to do it on my own.

Especially like, playing the BB vs BTN. I have no idea at all how people are justifying 3betting linear or polarized there and how wide they're calling to different sizes and stuff. I've done some math on it but it takes a really long time and can only give me frequencies, then it's up to me to guess at what combos go in those ranges.

Anyway, appreciate saving money on the J9s ;).

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