Open fold our flopped flush in sunday warmup?
Posted by rabbhit
Posted by
rabbhit
posted in
High Stakes
Open fold our flopped flush in sunday warmup?
No real reads more then that SB felt really solid and no real reads on the others.
Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 120 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #33816481
UTG+1: 33,552 (28 bb)
UTG+2: 13,304 (11.1 bb)
MP1: 31,846 (26.5 bb)
MP2: 28,950 (24.1 bb)
MP3: 78,484 (65.4 bb)
CO: 6,820 (5.7 bb)
BTN: 35,344 (29.5 bb)
SB: 55,114 (45.9 bb)
Hero (BB): 35,156 (29.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7h6h
3 folds, MP2 raises to 2,400, 2 folds, BTN calls 2,400, SB calls 1,800, Hero calls 1,200
Flop: (10,680) 4h9hJh (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets 6,340, BTN folds, SB calls 6,340, HERO ?????????
I had a hard time making up the correct play here between a call, shove or fold. The good thing with calling is it reduces variance against Ax hands with A of hearts. If a heart comes on the turn we are done with the hand. The problem with calling is that SB will likely check turn and so will MP if he doesn't have a flush so we will have to donk to get money in on the turn or otherwise we will give a free card, which will turn our hand face up. If we had position I think a call is as good as shoving.
I tanked for some time, can't remember if it was all that long but I just had a feeling that SB was trapping with a big flush. I went over his range and came to the conclusion that he never has AA KK QQ or JJ in this spot. Possible sets are 99 and 44 but I would expect a raise from a set here when button has already folded out. I would expect hands like AhKx and AhQx with A of hearts to 3bet pre and AhJx to raise flop. The only 2 pair combo is J9, dunno what I would exepct from him with that but a call is not unlikely. That leaves it with a few combinations of AhXx and made flushes.
I was leaning very heavily to him having a flush here. Posted the hand on another forum and got the answer standard shove.
What do you think? Am I overleveling myself in this handreading spot and should just close my eyes and shove or what? Any thoughts is welcome. Did I miss out on possible holdings on SB?
I'm not worried about MP because his range remains the same and if he has flopped a flush so be it, it's SB that I'm worried about in this spot.
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Fold ? whaaaat
Calling seems fine. Shoving may reduce their ranges to almost just hands that beat you and there aren't many turn cards that you are scared of.
Well, even if all posters on forum tell you have to shove or call, you're still allowed to follow your inclination and fold. I mean, it's sick to fold a flush with stack depth. But I strongly believe that the best players are never reluctant to follow their strongest instincts. You're allowed to try as well ;).
Honestly, it's a rough spot. I find it hard to categorically advocate one of the three options.
How face up do you think they'll play on the turn? Because I could see strategic merit in calling flop and seeing what happens on the turn, and maybe reevaluate. But IDK, very unsure about that, we'd need to have strong reads probably.
I am fairly confident turn would go check, check and check. MP2 should never fire a second barrell against two callers unless he flopped a flush and on river SB will likely bet out.
Against the range I assigned him, there is very few hands that doesnt combo a pair with a K or A heart draw or a made flush. I would expect AK or AQ to squeeze pre, that leaves a couple off offsuit aces and offsuit kings would be KQ and barely K10 and I expect an AJo, KJo and QJo to raise flop and prboably a raise from A9 aswell.
I've been thinking some more on the hand and even if I risk the turn to go check all around I probably like a flop call better and only call river if SB leads and fold to a checkraise from him on river.
So thinking back on the hand I really feel I played it quite bad. A fold is very nitty but I still feel it's close. Our read in this spot needs to be perfect and playing online and considering how people tend to pay off in weird spots I think a call is the best play. If he leads turn I would have to call and fold to river bet or check behind if he happens to trap. That would keep me a stack if I'm right and still win me a descent pot when I'm right since the pot in the flop is already 23k.
Soo yeah I like the safer line of just calling.
I think calling is def. better than jamming since we are giving opponents 1 card to hit 6 outs when they do have hands like AhX. If we jam it seems like we're never getting called by worse, except maybe AhJx, which we are kind of ruling out of SB's range anyway. I also think folding isn't bad and probably fine. If you call it looks like you've got around a PSB left on turn and can probably check/decide on non heart turns and give up on any heart. It does suck when SB leads just about any turn, though.
i kinda like just trying for a lead lead lead line here. although i auto check this flop 2 much i think
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