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LAPT- Brasil $2k buy in: Flop spot, getting c/r

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LAPT- Brasil $2k buy in: Flop spot, getting c/r

So this is a hand I played
in the main event of LAPT- Brasil. Buy in was $2k.

Reads in villain: was kinda
aggro, opening pots and calling pretty much every time he got 3bet. Not much dynamic between us.

Blinds 300- 600- with 50
ante.

Stacks: Me 55k ish, Villain covers, and CO 25k.

Villain opens to 1.2k in
MP, hj call, CO call and me on the btn with AJo decided to squeeze to 4.6k.
villain calls, hj folds and CO calls.

Flop (16,350): 872 with two
diamonds.

Villain checks, CO checks
and I bet 7.2k, villain makes it 17.2k, CO (that had only 20k left behind) folds

 

My analysis:

Pot preflop: 16350

Pot postflop: 7200 + 17200
= 24400

Total pot = 40750

 

·         Minimun defense frequency: (1-A)% (sean lefort 2nd vid)

 Let A = B / (B+1)

Let B = ratio of what
villain is risking to what he can win (betsize / potsize)

Villain raises 17,200 to
win a total of 40750 so 17,200 / 40750 = 0.42

Minimun defense frequency =
58%

·     Villain is raising us 10k so we need to call 10k to win 40750
so 10,000/50750 = 19.7% which would be our direct equity
needed to continue with our hand. Can we ever float here instead of shoving
with this good odds??

·         Break even folding frequency: (this formula is in Sthephen
Chidwick video: Introduction to Live MTTs)

84,000 is the amout we
would have if villain folds.

(1-x) is villain calling
frequency

117,000 is the total of the
pot if we get called.

0.25 is our equity in the
hand if called

and 43,000 is the amout we
would have if we just fold.

This is the range i think
villain would call our shove:
(Ax8x,Ax7x,JJ-77,Tx9x,8x7x,6x5x,22,AdQd-Ad9d,Ad7d-Ad3d,KdJd,QdTd)

 84,000x + (1-x)(117,000 *
0.25) = 43,000

84,000x + (1-x)(29250) =
43000

84000x – 29250x + 29250 =
43000

54750x = 13750

X= 25%

I need villain to fold 25%
in order for my shove to breakeven.

 So if we add a few bluffs
to villains range that would fold to our shove like KQ, QJ, JT, AQ, AT. I think
it would be a profitable shove. 

So i kinda want to shove... What do you think about my
squeeze?, Is calling the flop raise
an option?? checking flop back?

Thanks for all the help.


5 Comments

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Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 9 months ago

brazilian ?

I think preflop is way too loose to play this huge pot with AJo 90bb deep, specially given that villain has low fold equity given his tendencies and you have position on him. Calling is fine. I don't think calling this flop is an option since the SPR will look ridiculous and he has to shove any turn. 

In terms of ranges, he has top and middle set and you don't. You are very, very far away from the top of your range so calling here is not a good option. It is a very standard fold. Even preflop your hand kinda is marginal, in this spot I am throwing it into the muck. I know it is hard to play heads up pots in brazilian tournaments (lol) but your preflop hand strength is not high enough to make this play. 

Your assumptions about "adding bluffs" are kinda off for me. What part of the range he is folding ? Because if you consider that he x/r all his air any call is profitable. You did not consider, but he can be trapping there also. 4betting the squeezer when are two callers in front of him is too strong and he can maximize the ev against guys that may be stations by calling there. 

You can cbet this flop to protect your range but in this situation, given SPR and you are facing two opponents your hand is too weak to bet and you are giving the first caller more than 3:1 and the second, if the first calls amazing odds to continue with anything. 


OpenFoldBTN 10 years, 9 months ago

Raphael, thanks for your comment and sorry for my late reply, ive been kinda traveling and my laptop broke.

I dont think that preflop is way too loose. I think its ok to squeeze this hand some % of the time. AJs i would just call. 

I agree that im far away from my top range, and that i cant have top sets. But I definitely think that he could have some bluffs here. He has a wide range preflop, and i dont think its off to think that he could be bluffing here. This is a big pot so villain should be more incline to bluff and fight for it. Now, i dont have a clear read on him and i dont know how wide his check-raising range is... And that was a reason why i ended up just folding the hand, but i was kinda wondering if shoving is a good option. I did consider that he could have KK+ but i didnt think that he would risk playing those hands in a posible 4 way pot and being OOP.

I am not sure if i like checkin back flop but your points are definitely valid. 

I am going to keep looking into this and will come back with a deeper answer, i just got back home and wanted to reply this asap.

And no, im not brazilian.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 9 months ago

Nice to see someone from outside here. The hotel from this event is not that great but BSOP decided to finally change. 

The problem on squeezing AJo there is that you are squeezing a ton of offsuit combos if you decide for it. And also, brazilian loves to see flops. So, the squeezing opportunity becomes more attractive with the top of the range and less with medium strength hands. 

You had any diamonds ? That would make a check even better, you can play deceptively your AA/KK since the board is kinda wet but his calling range also does not smash it. I would check AA/KK with a diamond and c-bet the rest. 

Baraky 10 years, 9 months ago

Even though people here tend to play loosely, AJo is not a good hand to squeeze as it is not (in my opinion) a good hand to 3-bet in an optimal situation. Of course people calling with a wide range would be nice to 3-bet depolarized etc etc, but in practice you will have a hand that doesn't flop very well and gets to showdown very weak, as it doesn't make big hands often. In the most loose situation (bu raising and bb calling) I still call with AJo and squeeze KQo as it's as good for blockers and has less showdown value.

Now, about the hand, it's absolutely a better flop for him than for you. If he's the type who check raises air, he will simply not fold enough for a c-bet to work. He will check-raise air and any pair to stack off because he knows he has the needed odds to do so. I would remove 9T from his range, because here he is either bluffing you or inducing you to go all in, in practice I believe he would shove directly with it.

Inducing here with 99/bottom/under/middle pairs giving you room to float, or having to call the rest of his stack if you shove, when he does have the odds to shove his pairs directly, is just terrible. So it seems (for his stack and raise sizes) that he's trying to represent a monster, which in my opinion polarizes a lot his range, and as he is so loose, he will definitely not hit these frequently. Not only that, but exploitatively speaking, why should he reraise with his monsters (2 pairs+) with this stack, when it screams strenght and if you have value he'll stack you anyway? Of course, if he is shoving directly his middle pairs he must shove his monsters too, that's why I said exploitatively speaking, because what you see in practice are players almost always slowplaying in these spots.

So yeah, given how loose and how polarized I believe his range is and how much people LOVE to make cheap bluffs in these spots where you have shown strenght etc, I do believe this AJo is a shove and you'll see him mucking instantly many times.


mikehunsucker 10 years, 8 months ago

creative thought process, with the math to back it up!  i'm not sure squeezing is necessary in this spot, because brazilian players are so sticky preflop, and on the flop.  mixing it in sometimes here, is def profitable though.   if squeezing, i would make it a little larger pre to try to avoid getting multiple callers

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