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Final Table Spot

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Final Table Spot

$5,000 GTD Deepstack Turbo T13633528 -- TICKETCASH -- $55 + $5 -- 9 Max -- Table 13 -- 500/2500/5000 NL Hold'em -- 2013/02/09 - 23:41:04
Seat 1: BB (33,304 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG (109,083 in chips)
Seat 4: MP (44,994 in chips)
Seat 7: MP2 (111,510 in chips)
Seat 8: HERO (137,282 in chips)
Seat 9: BTN (23,074 in chips)
Seat 10: SB (80,753 in chips)
BB: posts ante of 500
UTG: posts ante of 500
MP: posts ante of 500
MP2: posts ante of 500
HERO: posts ante of 500
BTN: posts ante of 500
SB: posts ante of 500
SB: posts small blind 2,500
BB: posts big blind 5,000
Dealt to HERO [Ad,Ks]
UTG: folds
MP: folds
MP2: is all in 111,010
HERO: is Happy?

$55 5k GTD Turbo on Lock.
7 handed at final table.
Villain is a losing player over 400 games.
The remaining villains are losing players over similar sample sizes.
To have him open-shove for ~20bb leaves me confused.
If I think he's protecting his hand, I have to assume he has a mid-pair.
That said, and for ICM reasons, could you justify folding here?
If I put him on 22-QQ, we have around 45%.
Better spots or we have AK, and it's not even close?

4 Comments

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Grayson Ramage 12 years, 1 month ago
If you could absolutely pin down his range to consist of only pairs, then this would be a fold. However, although I think he will show up with a pair here more often than not, I believe he has some other hands in his range that you are anywhere from slightly to way ahead of, so I am not folding.
Tom M 12 years, 1 month ago
I think in game so many people snap call but you have a ton of BB's for a Lock Turbo and I think we see 99-JJ from villain so frequently, and AQo/AQs so infrequently - likewise with KQ. I think it's a fold.
serbie 12 years, 1 month ago
i think he has a small to mid pp here a lot, but i still call. theres quite a few hands that you dominate that ppl show up with here, and even tho you are 1st and 2nd in chips, it's only 22bb's effective. its still very easy for you to go from 1st to out with your stack, but if you win this pot your chances of closing are much much higher imo. so i take the gamble.

i was in an almost identical spot the other day on titan. turbo ft, 25/50k blinds, 7 or 8 handed. i had cl with 1.2mil and a mp 1 mil stack openshoved and i had AK. i did time down but i ended up taking the gamble for the reasons above. (he had AK too and we chopped).

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