Final Table Spot

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Final Table Spot

$5,000 GTD Deepstack Turbo T13633528 -- TICKETCASH -- $55 + $5 -- 9 Max -- Table 13 -- 500/2500/5000 NL Hold'em -- 2013/02/09 - 23:41:04
Seat 1: BB (33,304 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG (109,083 in chips)
Seat 4: MP (44,994 in chips)
Seat 7: MP2 (111,510 in chips)
Seat 8: HERO (137,282 in chips)
Seat 9: BTN (23,074 in chips)
Seat 10: SB (80,753 in chips)
BB: posts ante of 500
UTG: posts ante of 500
MP: posts ante of 500
MP2: posts ante of 500
HERO: posts ante of 500
BTN: posts ante of 500
SB: posts ante of 500
SB: posts small blind 2,500
BB: posts big blind 5,000
Dealt to HERO [Ad,Ks]
UTG: folds
MP: folds
MP2: is all in 111,010
HERO: is Happy?

$55 5k GTD Turbo on Lock.
7 handed at final table.
Villain is a losing player over 400 games.
The remaining villains are losing players over similar sample sizes.
To have him open-shove for ~20bb leaves me confused.
If I think he's protecting his hand, I have to assume he has a mid-pair.
That said, and for ICM reasons, could you justify folding here?
If I put him on 22-QQ, we have around 45%.
Better spots or we have AK, and it's not even close?

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