3bet pre flop spot. Cev analysis and optimal route decisions
Posted by imawhale26
Posted by
imawhale26
posted in
Mid Stakes
3bet pre flop spot. Cev analysis and optimal route decisions
Merge Game #70432792-100 (Tournament) | Holdem NL | 06/23/2013 17:06:12
EST | Version:2
Table $35K Gtd - [Deep], 70275548, Seats 9 (Tournament: $35K Gtd -
[Deep], 70275548) Seat 1: Jerrrrrrrrome ($11,635.00 in chips)
Seat 2: tlen261 ($12,304.00 in chips)
Seat 3: hamabdi ($13,848.00 in chips)
Seat 4: AAAAALLIN ($4,620.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 5: CCleaner9 ($7,750.00 in chips)
Seat 6: LunaLovegut ($14,183.00 in chips)
Seat 7: SaintDamian ($3,777.00 in chips)
Seat 8: NewberryKA ($10,952.00 in chips)
Seat 9: Yettiman171 ($1,873.00 in chips)
CCleaner9: Post SB $125.00
LunaLovegut: Post BB $250.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jerrrrrrrrome [Ac 8c]
SaintDamian: Fold
NewberryKA: Fold
Yettiman171: Fold
Jerrrrrrrrome: Raise $500.00
tlen261: Fold
hamabdi: Raise $1,500.00
AAAAALLIN: Fold
CCleaner9: Fold
LunaLovegut: Fold
Jerrrrrrrrome: Call $1,000.00
*** FLOP *** [6c 2c Qs]
Jerrrrrrrrome: Check
hamabdi: Bet $1,800.00
Jerrrrrrrrome: Raise $5,400.00
hamabdi: Allin $10,523.00
Jerrrrrrrrome: Allin $4,710.00
*** TURN *** [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [9d]
*** SUMMARY ***
Jerrrrrrrrome: Shows [Ac 8c]
hamabdi: Shows [Qc As]
hamabdi: wins $23,820.00
Villian is agro running at 23/15/14 over 181 hands Stats being VPIP/PFR % /3bet %pre
I call pre for a couple reasons. 1 being villian is an aggro 3bettor. Ive also been working with some hands that are good to flat to three bets ( A8ss might not be one of them) vs aggro 3bettors because we may be ahead of their range pre and by checking calling dry flop are hand looks very face up which enables us to bluff some rivers. Also my fold to 3bet has been high this mtt and I felt villian may have picked up on this.
Cev of shoving: Villian has an aggressive 3bet % and Ive been active
during our time together in this MTT.
Assigning a 10.4 % 3betting range of 10-10 + A9ss + A-10 + and some
broadways/ suited connectors. Against that range we have good equity.
Shove and get a fold: Villian will call with 2.6% of their range 1- 2.6/10.4
= 75% FE 5400 * .75 = +4050
Shove get called and win : 13700 * .25chance * .38equity to win when called = +1301
Shove get called and lose: 10100 * .25 * .61 = -1540
Cev = + 3811 or 4.76 BB’s gained by shoving
Is this the correct way to go about analyzing these spots?
Also have to keep in mind that we can take the flat and see one more
card route where we have to call 17 % of our stack to have a about a 34% chance
at hitting a flush or an ace
Loading 2 Comments...
without looking deeply into the math (not much time and a lil' lazy), I think the peel pf is not great and I'd rather fold.
It's interesting that villain has such a high 3bet% while he shows off with 23/15 PF stats, as such numbers tend me to believe he is not good. Also, I don't like the fact that he makes it 3x your open and he has position. The 3x and the 23/15 thing leeds me to think he is not folding pre.
Once we see that flop and he bets, there is 0 chance to get away imo. I'd play it the same way you did. Check-calling flop seems gross, since we will most likely just see 1 card.
Do you like 4betting more pre vs these opponents if you think theyre bad and cant adjust/have too tight of a 5bet gii range
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