Merge Game #70432792-100 (Tournament) | Holdem NL | 06/23/2013 17:06:12
EST | Version:2

Table $35K Gtd - [Deep], 70275548, Seats 9 (Tournament: $35K Gtd -
[Deep], 70275548)   Seat 1: Jerrrrrrrrome ($11,635.00 in chips)

Seat 2: tlen261 ($12,304.00 in chips)

Seat 3: hamabdi ($13,848.00 in chips)

Seat 4: AAAAALLIN ($4,620.00 in chips) DEALER

Seat 5: CCleaner9 ($7,750.00 in chips)

Seat 6: LunaLovegut ($14,183.00 in chips)

Seat 7: SaintDamian ($3,777.00 in chips)

Seat 8: NewberryKA ($10,952.00 in chips)

Seat 9: Yettiman171 ($1,873.00 in chips) 

CCleaner9: Post SB $125.00 

 
LunaLovegut: Post BB $250.00

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Jerrrrrrrrome [Ac 8c] 

 
SaintDamian: Fold

NewberryKA: Fold 

 
Yettiman171: Fold 

 
Jerrrrrrrrome: Raise $500.00

tlen261: Fold 

 
hamabdi: Raise $1,500.00 

 
AAAAALLIN: Fold 

 
CCleaner9: Fold 

 
LunaLovegut: Fold 

 
Jerrrrrrrrome: Call $1,000.00

*** FLOP *** [6c 2c Qs] 

 
Jerrrrrrrrome: Check 

 
hamabdi: Bet $1,800.00 

 
Jerrrrrrrrome: Raise $5,400.00 

 
hamabdi: Allin $10,523.00

Jerrrrrrrrome: Allin $4,710.00 

 
*** TURN *** [Qd]

*** RIVER *** [9d]

*** SUMMARY ***

Jerrrrrrrrome: Shows [Ac 8c]

hamabdi: Shows [Qc As]

hamabdi: wins $23,820.00

Villian is agro running at 23/15/14 over 181 hands  Stats being VPIP/PFR % /3bet %pre 

I call pre for a couple reasons. 1 being villian is an aggro 3bettor. Ive also been working with some hands that are good to flat to three bets ( A8ss might not be one of them) vs aggro 3bettors because we may be ahead of their range pre and by checking calling dry flop are hand looks very face up which enables us to bluff some rivers.  Also my fold to 3bet has been high this mtt and I felt villian may have picked up on this.

Cev of shoving: Villian has an aggressive 3bet % and Ive been active
during our time together in this MTT. 
Assigning a 10.4 % 3betting range of 10-10 + A9ss + A-10 + and some
broadways/ suited connectors. Against that range we have good equity. 

 
Shove and get a fold: Villian will call with 2.6% of their range 1- 2.6/10.4
= 75% FE      5400 * .75 = +4050

Shove get called and win : 13700 * .25chance * .38equity to win when called = +1301 

 
Shove get called and lose: 10100 * .25 * .61 = -1540

Cev = + 3811 or 4.76 BB’s gained by shoving

 
Is this the correct way to go about analyzing these spots?

Also have to keep in mind that we can take the flat and see one more
card route where we have to call 17 % of our stack to have a about a 34% chance
at hitting a flush or an ace