The Long Run
Posted by m3taphysics
Posted by
m3taphysics
posted in
Gen. Poker
The Long Run
Hi Guys
So after running bad for quite a while and never really getting a foot up on poker, I feel like I grasp so many concepts better than other players who do better than me. So I did some research into the long run and I stumbled across this variance calculator which I am sure some of you may have used before: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
So, lets assume I am a 3bb/100 average winner at low stakes. The worst possible run for me over 1 MILLION HANDS is break even. The probability that I will yield a loss over this period os 0.13% which (correct me if I am wrong). 1 Out of every 740 players this will happen to. Even after 2 million hands the probability of still being at a loss is still probable, given the amount of players.
Conversely, if I say I am a slight losing player -1bb/100. Over 1 MILLION HANDS, the odds that I will actually profit at the end of it is 16%, which is almost 1 in every 6 players who play bad will profit, even after 1million hands.
So this leads me on to the question:
1) Pros must exist that do not play all that well, but are in the top percentile of "running good" which means everything falls into place for them, for extended periods of time, even though they could technically be a losing player.
2) Losers must exist that are technically winning players.
Surely we must also factor in the fact people run better at different times, if you run better when you move up, you are more likely to be successful. Your mental game will be better and therefore your overall playing and profit will be better.
Also, this video is awesome:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHCHEykUxP4&list=UU6nSFpj9HTCZ5t-N3Rm3-HA
Discuss :)
Loading 1 Comments...
Therein lies a good argument for why every good poker player thinks hes the best in the world lol :D. I generally think a big factor in the difference between the former mentioned losing players and the latter successful players is persistence at taking shots. Everyone has upswings and downswings and no one is exempt from the roller coaster that is variance.
That said, being able to stick to habitually keeping a cool head and not tilting every time you lose and keep your confidence is probably one of the biggest reasons most pros are successful and not stuck at the low limits grinding.
The way I see variance is like you're late for work and there is red light after red light. On top of that there are noob drivers that are just taking their time every which way you look. So the question is, do you just speed, bypass the noobs, and go through the seemingly endless string of red lights and potentially get a hefty fine for speeding / running red lights, or do you just stay calm / play it safe and run the risk of losing your job? Which solution has more +EV in the long run?
ps. interesting video. have you ever watched wizard of oz while listening to dark side of the moon? so good.
Be the first to add a comment